Gengar Secret Rare
SimulatedGengar Secret Rare · HeartGold SoulSilver · Secret Rare · 93/123
Character: Gengar
Price History
Opportunity Score
36- 11% below fair value+13 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+5 pts
- Strong demand (12 sales/mo)+4 pts
- Sales accelerating+1 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish37Gengar Secret Rare is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-10.2%). Estimated fair value is $401 against a lowest active listing of $358. Valuation confidence is high based on 9-plus recent comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-10.2% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 397.64 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 423.08 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 375.01 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 0.66 | 20% |
Active Listings
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $460 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 2h ago |
| $496 | eBay | Near Mint | 14h ago |
| $493 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 4d ago |
| $512 | PWCC | Near Mint | 4d ago |
| $520 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 5d ago |
| $532 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 6d ago |
| $524 | Mercari | Near Mint | 13d ago |
| $513 | Mercari | Near Mint | 16d ago |
| $488 | eBay | Near Mint | 18d ago |
| $501 | PWCC | Near Mint | 22d ago |
| $436 | Mercari | Near Mint | 24d ago |
| $541 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 26d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Umbreon PromoHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $408 | $362 | 11.3% | 5.1% | 11 | 42 |
Pikachu ex (Illustration Rare)HeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $409 | $350 | 14.5% | 8.6% | 6 | 42 |
Umbreon Ultra RareHeartGold SoulSilverCGC 9Simulated
| $691 | $576 | 16.7% | 15.8% | 11 | 50 |
Gengar V (Full Art)XY EvolutionsSimulated
| $376 | $360 | 4.4% | 30.1% | 23 | 48 |
Gengar Secret RareHeartGold SoulSilverBGS 9Simulated
| $732 | $686 | 6.3% | 8.1% | 9 | 38 |
Gengar ex (Special Illustration)Hidden FatesSimulated
| $259 | $215 | 17.2% | 3.4% | 6 | 55 |