Flaaffy
PSA 9.5SimulatedFlaaffy · HeartGold SoulSilver · Uncommon · 42
Character: Flaaffy
Price History
Opportunity Score
52- 22% below fair value+26 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Sales accelerating+4 pts
- Strong demand (8 sales/mo)+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish15Flaaffy (PSA 9.5) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-23.5%). Estimated fair value is $36 against a lowest active listing of $28. Valuation confidence is high based on 20-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-23.5% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and rising graded population (5.5%/mo).
Risk Indicators
- Rising graded population may pressure prices
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growing 6.2%/mo — supply expanding quickly across 1660 graded.
1,660 graded · 50% gem · +6.2%/mo
- Raw cost
- $27.71
- All-in cost
- $56.71+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $35.64
- Expected proceeds
- $9.3030% gem → $10.69 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$47.41
- Breakeven graded value
- $217value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.6dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 67.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -1.9%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 9active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $103mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $101cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $91.11
- Median
- $102
- Mean
- $103
- Max
- $117
Showing 27 of 27 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 37.83 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 31.25 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 36.97 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -2.76 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 1.89 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $101 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 72 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $103 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 62 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $104 | eBay | Graded | 93 | 74d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $104 | Mercari | Graded | 69 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $112 | PWCC | Graded | 87 | 69d ago | Jun 10 | View |
| $119 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 76 | 61d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $120 | eBay | Graded | 83 | 58d ago | Jun 6 | View |
| $121 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 88 | 68d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $124 | eBay | Graded | 81 | 75d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $113 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 56d ago |
| $104 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 56d ago |
| $109 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 57d ago |
| $101 | Mercari | Graded | 59d ago |
| $102 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 63d ago |
| $96.32 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 64d ago |
| $102 | PWCC | Graded | 67d ago |
| $114 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 70d ago |
| $107 | Mercari | Graded | 76d ago |
| $106 | eBay | Graded | 78d ago |
| $117 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 80d ago |
| $99.22 | PWCC | Graded | 81d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HeracrossHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $179 | $156 | 13.1% | 0.2% | 17 | 44 |
 LaprasHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $178 | $168 | 5.7% | 4.4% | 9 | 32 |
 AzumarillHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $118 | $118 | -0.3% | 22.0% | 7 | 36 |
 ChanseyHeartGold SoulSilverPSA 10Simulated
| $274 | $269 | 1.9% | 0.3% | 2 | 42 |
FlaaffyHeartGold SoulSilverBGS 9Simulated
| $152 | $134 | 11.8% | 33.9% | 2 | 46 |
 ClefairyHeartGold SoulSilverPSA 9Simulated
| $128 | $111 | 13.0% | 2.8% | 9 | 48 |