PokéAlpha
Live data not configuredNumbers are backed by a real but dated snapshot. Enable real marketplace listings for live intelligence.How to enable
Back to dashboard
Koffing — Base Set — Common

Koffing

CGC 9Simulated

Koffing · Base Set · Common · 51

Character: Koffing

high confidencebullish8630d 15.0%
Estimated Fair Value
$264
Lowest listing $2437.9% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$225
Base Case
$264
Bull Case
$303

Price History

Dec 8Range $247 – $331Jun 5

Opportunity Score

38
  • 8% below fair value+9 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Price up 15% over 30 days+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • Strong demand (14 sales/mo)+4 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish86

Koffing (CGC 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+15.0%). Estimated fair value is $264 against a lowest active listing of $243. Valuation confidence is high based on 11-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+15.0% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and rising graded population (6.1%/mo).

Risk Indicators

  • Rising graded population may pressure prices
Active Listings
11
Sales / Month
14.0
Velocity Score
70/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+0.5%
Total Graded
6,371
Gem Mint
3,661
Population Growth
+6.1%
Rising — supply pressure

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-74.7%
Grading not economical
steady population

Population growing 3.1%/mo — steady supply across 2817 graded.

2,817 graded · 57% gem · +3.1%/mo

Raw cost
$243
All-in cost
$272+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$264
Expected proceeds
$68.8230% gem → $79.10 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$203.13
Breakeven graded value
$1,042value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
4.6dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
19.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-23.8%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
21active listings
Recent sold avg
$293mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$223cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$281
Median
$293
Mean
$296
Max
$310

Showing 7 of 7 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps262.0850%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices280.9625%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection281.5625%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-3.0350%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)0.120%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$223Facebook MarketplaceGraded7864d agoJan 1View
$226TCGPlayerGraded7474d agoJan 1View
$229Facebook MarketplaceGraded8461d agoJan 1View
$229Facebook MarketplaceGraded8955d agoJun 10View
$229PWCCGraded7858d agoJan 1View
$230Facebook MarketplaceGraded6768d agoJan 1View
$237eBayGraded7970d agoJan 1View
$243Facebook MarketplaceGraded8867d agoJan 1View
$245MercariGraded9468d agoJan 1View
$250TCGPlayerGraded6855d agoJan 1View
$250eBayGraded6857d agoJan 1View
$251PWCCGraded6974d agoJun 9View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$293Facebook MarketplaceGraded68d ago
$293MercariGraded77d ago
$290MercariGraded82d ago
$281MercariGraded83d ago
$307TCGPlayerGraded87d ago
$310Facebook MarketplaceGraded91d ago
$301PWCCGraded109d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Related Assets

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
Base Zard — Base Set — Holo Rare
Base ZardBase SetPSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $572 · sales-derived, ungradedView $499 · TCGPlayer
  • 9% below fair value+11 pts
  • Low active inventory+9 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$4,319$3,9279.1%3.3%143
Base Set Booster Box (Sealed) — Base Set — Sealed
Base Set Booster Box (Sealed)Base SetSimulated
  • 12% below fair value+14 pts
  • Sales accelerating+11 pts
  • Price up 31% over 30 days+8 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$2,988,662$2,642,34411.6%31.0%1957
Mewtwo (Base) — Base Set — Holo Rare
Mewtwo (Base)Base SetPSA 9Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $77.61 · sales-derived, ungradedView $32.99 · TCGPlayer
  • 52% below fair value+35 pts
  • Low active inventory+9 pts
  • Price up 33% over 30 days+8 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$154$74.2351.9%33.3%174
Blastoise — Base Set — Holo Rare
BlastoiseBase SetPSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $229 · sales-derived, ungradedView $149 · TCGPlayer
  • 26% below fair value+30 pts
  • Low active inventory+9 pts
  • Price up 19% over 30 days+8 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$2,369$1,75525.9%19.3%167
Gyarados — Base Set — Rare Holo
GyaradosBase SetSimulated
  • 15% below fair value+17 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$1,152$98414.6%11.6%2142
Onix — Base Set — Common
OnixBase SetSimulated
  • 8% below fair value+10 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$225$2068.4%9.1%1834