PokéAlpha
Back to dashboard

Dragonite Secret Rare

Simulated

Dragonite Secret Rare · Evolving Skies · Secret Rare · 55/237

Character: Dragonite

high confidencebullish7030d 7.4%
Estimated Fair Value
$190
Lowest listing $16413.7% below
Bear Case
$163
Base Case
$190
Bull Case
$217

Price History

Dec 2Range $148$259May 30

Opportunity Score

41
  • 14% below fair value+16 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+5 pts
  • Price up 7% over 30 days+3 pts
  • Sales accelerating+3 pts
  • Strong demand (5 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish70

Dragonite Secret Rare is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+7.4%). Estimated fair value is $190 against a lowest active listing of $164. Valuation confidence is high based on 22-plus recent comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+7.4% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
22
Sales / Month
5.0
Velocity Score
25/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+6.3%
Confidence
77/100

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps183.3550%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices193.8625%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection188.2725%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)1.2620%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$195TCGPlayerNear Mint7612d agoJan 1View
$214Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8712d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$199Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint5d ago
$222eBayNear Mint7d ago
$233Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8d ago
$223TCGPlayerNear Mint18d ago
$241MercariNear Mint22d ago
$221Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint32d ago
$204eBayNear Mint41d ago
$194PWCCNear Mint42d ago
$208MercariNear Mint47d ago
$231eBayNear Mint52d ago
$206TCGPlayerNear Mint53d ago
$207MercariNear Mint58d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
Charizard Holo RareEvolving SkiesSimulated
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
$239$2380.3%5.1%1423
Charizard ex (Illustration Rare)Evolving SkiesBGS 9.5Simulated
  • 12% below fair value+14 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$589$51911.9%11.3%2048
MoonbreonEvolving SkiesPSA 10Simulated
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • 6% below fair value+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
$1,575$1,4825.9%4.6%1230
Umbreon Holo RareEvolving SkiesBGS 9Simulated
  • 13% below fair value+15 pts
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$311$27112.8%0.8%2148
Rayquaza VMAX (Alt Art)Evolving SkiesPSA 10Simulated
  • 13% below fair value+15 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
$700$61112.8%11.8%1946
Umbreon Secret RareEvolving SkiesCGC 9Simulated
  • 11% below fair value+13 pts
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
$721$63911.4%8.2%1952