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Goldeen — Prismatic Evolutions — Common

Goldeen

CGC 9Simulated

Goldeen · Prismatic Evolutions · Common · 20

Character: Goldeen

high confidenceneutral5030d ▼1.1%
Estimated Fair Value
$15.72
Lowest listing $14.706.5% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$13.38
Base Case
$15.72
Bull Case
$18.10

Price History

Dec 8Range $37.62 – $98.04Jun 5

Opportunity Score

36
  • 6% below fair value+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • Low active inventory+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • Strong demand (14 sales/mo)+4 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral50

Goldeen (CGC 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-1.1%). Estimated fair value is $16 against a lowest active listing of $15. Valuation confidence is high based on 4-plus modeled comparable sales.

Neutral: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and rising graded population (6.6%/mo).

Risk Indicators

  • Rising graded population may pressure prices
Active Listings
4
Sales / Month
13.5
Velocity Score
68/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
-6.9%
Total Graded
4,920
Gem Mint
2,073
Population Growth
+6.6%
Rising — supply pressure

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-90.6%
Grading not economical
slowing population

Population growth slowing to -0.6%/mo — supply tightening across 6294 graded.

6,294 graded · 54% gem · -0.6%/mo

Raw cost
$14.70
All-in cost
$43.70+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$15.72
Expected proceeds
$4.1030% gem → $4.72 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$39.60
Breakeven graded value
$167value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.3dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
81.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-0.6%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
4active listings
Recent sold avg
$59.89mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$59.55cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$38.59
Median
$59.60
Mean
$56.78
Max
$69.63

Showing 26 of 26 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps16.3850%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices16.4525%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection16.7525%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-3.3150%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-1.3720%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$59.55TCGPlayerGraded9375d agoJan 1View
$62.31Facebook MarketplaceGraded9858d agoJan 1View
$63.19TCGPlayerGraded8575d agoJan 1View
$74.25TCGPlayerGraded9860d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$68.43PWCCGraded56d ago
$61.69PWCCGraded57d ago
$62.00Facebook MarketplaceGraded58d ago
$60.51MercariGraded59d ago
$64.63MercariGraded59d ago
$69.63eBayGraded59d ago
$64.24eBayGraded61d ago
$54.48MercariGraded62d ago
$59.32TCGPlayerGraded66d ago
$60.47PWCCGraded67d ago
$50.84TCGPlayerGraded71d ago
$44.12PWCCGraded72d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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