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Lugia V (Full Art)

CGC 9Simulated

Lugia V (Full Art) · XY Evolutions · Full Art · 16/108

Character: Lugia

high confidenceneutral4930d 1.5%
Estimated Fair Value
$364
Lowest listing $31314.1% below
Bear Case
$314
Base Case
$364
Bull Case
$414

Price History

Dec 2Range $199$419May 30

Opportunity Score

48
  • 14% below fair value+16 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Sales accelerating+3 pts
  • Low active inventory+3 pts
  • Strong demand (9 sales/mo)+3 pts
  • Population growth slowing+3 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral49

Lugia V (Full Art) (CGC 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-1.5%). Estimated fair value is $364 against a lowest active listing of $313. Valuation confidence is high based on 7-plus recent comparable sales.

Neutral: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
7
Sales / Month
9.0
Velocity Score
45/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+8.0%
Total Graded
6,200
Gem Mint
1,283
Population Growth
+3.4%
Slowing

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps358.1350%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices361.8525%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection379.2225%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-1.6950%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)1.5920%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$293eBayGraded729d agoJun 4View
$310TCGPlayerGraded9023h agoJun 1View
$319TCGPlayerGraded859d agoJan 1View
$336Facebook MarketplaceGraded978d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$277PWCCGraded6h ago
$279eBayGraded16h ago
$283PWCCGraded1d ago
$293Facebook MarketplaceGraded4d ago
$280MercariGraded9d ago
$245PWCCGraded13d ago
$260MercariGraded15d ago
$278TCGPlayerGraded16d ago
$295PWCCGraded17d ago
$285Facebook MarketplaceGraded20d ago
$311Facebook MarketplaceGraded20d ago
$304Facebook MarketplaceGraded27d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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