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Espeon — Prismatic Evolutions — Rare

Espeon

Simulated

Espeon · Prismatic Evolutions · Rare · 33

Character: Espeon

high confidencebearish2930d 15.0%
Estimated Fair Value
$1,546
Lowest listing $1,26018.5% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$1,326
Base Case
$1,546
Bull Case
$1,768

Price History

Dec 8Range $110 – $156Jun 5

Opportunity Score

53
  • 19% below fair value+22 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Sales accelerating+5 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts
  • Strong demand (16 sales/mo)+5 pts
  • Low active inventory+4 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish29

Espeon is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-15.0%). Estimated fair value is $1546 against a lowest active listing of $1260. Valuation confidence is high based on 6-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-15.0% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
6
Sales / Month
16.5
Velocity Score
83/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+12.8%
Confidence
89/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
+2.0%
Marginal grading ROI
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$1,260
All-in cost
$1,289+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$5,039
Expected proceeds
$1,31530% gem → $1,512 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
$26.43
Breakeven graded value
$4,938value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.3dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
57.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-12.3%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
17active listings
Recent sold avg
$145mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$127cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$126
Median
$141
Mean
$143
Max
$158

Showing 36 of 36 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps1543.0350%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices1398.2925%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection1545.6625%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)2.5620%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$127Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9374d agoJun 9View
$129PWCCNear Mint7569d agoJun 8View
$130PWCCNear Mint7970d agoJan 1View
$130Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9258d agoJan 1View
$132PWCCNear Mint7563d agoJan 1View
$133PWCCNear Mint7060d agoJan 1View
$137MercariNear Mint6772d agoJan 1View
$138TCGPlayerNear Mint7567d agoJan 1View
$139eBayNear Mint8171d agoJan 1View
$142MercariNear Mint6775d agoJan 1View
$142PWCCNear Mint6975d agoJan 1View
$144MercariNear Mint8859d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$147TCGPlayerNear Mint54d ago
$141MercariNear Mint55d ago
$154TCGPlayerNear Mint58d ago
$158eBayNear Mint61d ago
$151PWCCNear Mint61d ago
$138eBayNear Mint63d ago
$157TCGPlayerNear Mint64d ago
$141eBayNear Mint64d ago
$157Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint64d ago
$156TCGPlayerNear Mint66d ago
$152MercariNear Mint68d ago
$132PWCCNear Mint70d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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