Lugia Promo
SimulatedLugia Promo · Hidden Fates · Promo · 107/163
Character: Lugia
Price History
Opportunity Score
55- 16% below fair value+19 pts
- Sales accelerating+10 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Strong demand (16 sales/mo)+5 pts
- Low active inventory+2 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral53Lugia Promo is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-4.0%). Estimated fair value is $164 against a lowest active listing of $138. Valuation confidence is high based on 8-plus recent comparable sales.
Neutral: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 159.33 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 149.79 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 155.82 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 5.22 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $137 | PWCC | Near Mint | 84 | 11d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $138 | Mercari | Near Mint | 69 | 9d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $139 | Mercari | Near Mint | 80 | 5d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $141 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 88 | 14d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $143 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 78 | 15d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $143 | PWCC | Near Mint | 94 | 12d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $144 | eBay | Near Mint | 62 | 14d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $147 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 80 | 17d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $149 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 83 | 13d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $152 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 85 | 1d ago | Jun 3 | View |
| $157 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 74 | 8d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $158 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 78 | 3d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $165 | eBay | Near Mint | 14h ago |
| $144 | eBay | Near Mint | 15h ago |
| $155 | eBay | Near Mint | 2d ago |
| $154 | PWCC | Near Mint | 3d ago |
| $164 | eBay | Near Mint | 7d ago |
| $146 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 12d ago |
| $136 | PWCC | Near Mint | 13d ago |
| $158 | PWCC | Near Mint | 14d ago |
| $134 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 14d ago |
| $139 | Mercari | Near Mint | 16d ago |
| $152 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 16d ago |
| $146 | PWCC | Near Mint | 16d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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Same character or set.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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