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Lucario ex — Prismatic Evolutions — Double Rare

Lucario ex

Simulated

Lucario ex · Prismatic Evolutions · Double Rare · 51

Character: Lucario

high confidenceneutral4730d 5.8%
Estimated Fair Value
$658
Lowest listing $5969.4% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$563
Base Case
$658
Bull Case
$752

Price History

Dec 8Range $92.49 – $137Jun 5

Opportunity Score

49
  • 9% below fair value+11 pts
  • Sales accelerating+10 pts
  • Low active inventory+8 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts
  • Strong demand (13 sales/mo)+4 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral47

Lucario ex is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-5.8%). Estimated fair value is $658 against a lowest active listing of $596. Valuation confidence is high based on 2-plus modeled comparable sales.

Neutral: softening prices (-5.8% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
Active Listings
2
Sales / Month
13.0
Velocity Score
65/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+23.6%
Confidence
81/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-0.4%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$596
All-in cost
$625+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$2,385
Expected proceeds
$62330% gem → $716 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$2.76
Breakeven graded value
$2,396value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
0.9dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
55.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-14.8%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
17active listings
Recent sold avg
$131mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$112cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$107
Median
$128
Mean
$127
Max
$145

Showing 33 of 33 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps638.4950%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices635.7525%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection601.4625%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)4.7320%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$112PWCCNear Mint7057d agoJun 7View
$112PWCCNear Mint8370d agoJan 1View
$113Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8768d agoJun 6View
$114PWCCNear Mint9171d agoJan 1View
$115eBayNear Mint8862d agoJan 1View
$120PWCCNear Mint9656d agoJan 1View
$124Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8774d agoJun 6View
$126PWCCNear Mint6360d agoJan 1View
$126PWCCNear Mint6960d agoJan 1View
$133Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7071d agoJan 1View
$134eBayNear Mint6359d agoJan 1View
$136MercariNear Mint9755d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$123TCGPlayerNear Mint56d ago
$128TCGPlayerNear Mint57d ago
$123MercariNear Mint57d ago
$137Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint58d ago
$131Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint59d ago
$143MercariNear Mint59d ago
$145PWCCNear Mint60d ago
$134TCGPlayerNear Mint63d ago
$118MercariNear Mint64d ago
$121TCGPlayerNear Mint65d ago
$117TCGPlayerNear Mint65d ago
$121Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint65d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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