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Vaporeon — Prismatic Evolutions — Rare

Vaporeon

Simulated

Vaporeon · Prismatic Evolutions · Rare · 22

Character: Vaporeon

high confidenceneutral5230d ▼2.8%
Estimated Fair Value
$28.74
Lowest listing $24.9513.2% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$24.92
Base Case
$28.74
Bull Case
$32.52

Price History

Dec 8Range $52.82 – $86.24Jun 5

Opportunity Score

41
  • 13% below fair value+15 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (12 sales/mo)+4 pts
  • Sales accelerating+3 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral52

Vaporeon is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-2.8%). Estimated fair value is $29 against a lowest active listing of $25. Valuation confidence is high based on 10-plus modeled comparable sales.

Neutral: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
10
Sales / Month
11.5
Velocity Score
57/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+7.5%
Confidence
98/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-51.7%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$24.95
All-in cost
$53.95+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$99.80
Expected proceeds
$26.0530% gem → $29.94 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$27.90
Breakeven graded value
$207value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.5dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
46.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-0.1%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
22active listings
Recent sold avg
$65.13mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$65.09cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$55.35
Median
$62.73
Mean
$63.25
Max
$76.19

Showing 30 of 30 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps28.9450%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices27.4125%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection27.9825%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)1.520%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$65.09PWCCNear Mint7063d agoJun 7View
$66.39PWCCNear Mint6274d agoJan 1View
$67.12PWCCNear Mint8757d agoJan 1View
$67.75Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9960d agoJan 1View
$67.93PWCCNear Mint9555d agoJan 1View
$69.61MercariNear Mint8570d agoJan 1View
$72.13MercariNear Mint6356d agoJun 9View
$73.32eBayNear Mint7873d agoJun 9View
$74.70MercariNear Mint6055d agoJan 1View
$75.28MercariNear Mint8969d agoJan 1View
$76.13eBayNear Mint7762d agoJan 1View
$77.02PWCCNear Mint9058d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$73.36MercariNear Mint54d ago
$69.85MercariNear Mint56d ago
$76.19eBayNear Mint57d ago
$75.50MercariNear Mint58d ago
$62.81eBayNear Mint60d ago
$63.40Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint61d ago
$58.88MercariNear Mint65d ago
$63.81TCGPlayerNear Mint65d ago
$57.42Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint67d ago
$62.65TCGPlayerNear Mint67d ago
$66.44eBayNear Mint68d ago
$64.53MercariNear Mint68d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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