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Chansey — Base Set — Rare Holo

Chansey

Simulated

Chansey · Base Set · Rare Holo · 3

Character: Chansey

high confidencebullish9530d 16.3%
Estimated Fair Value
$321
Lowest listing $27713.6% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$274
Base Case
$321
Bull Case
$370

Price History

Dec 8Range $190 – $302Jun 5

Opportunity Score

52
  • 14% below fair value+16 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Price up 16% over 30 days+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Sales accelerating+5 pts
  • Strong demand (14 sales/mo)+4 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish95

Chansey is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+16.3%). Estimated fair value is $321 against a lowest active listing of $277. Valuation confidence is high based on 18-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+16.3% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
18
Sales / Month
13.5
Velocity Score
68/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+12.7%
Confidence
97/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-5.5%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$277
All-in cost
$306+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$1,109
Expected proceeds
$28930% gem → $333 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$16.80
Breakeven graded value
$1,173value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.8dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
66.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
+3.6%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
10active listings
Recent sold avg
$236mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$245cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$202
Median
$243
Mean
$252
Max
$314

Showing 31 of 31 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps304.8750%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices321.1125%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection321.2125%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)2.5320%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$245TCGPlayerNear Mint9961d agoJan 1View
$247Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6364d agoJan 1View
$250Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6655d agoJan 1View
$252PWCCNear Mint9657d agoJan 1View
$259MercariNear Mint6360d agoJan 1View
$300PWCCNear Mint8367d agoJan 1View
$307eBayNear Mint7365d agoJan 1View
$312Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7471d agoJan 1View
$317MercariNear Mint9960d agoJan 1View
$322MercariNear Mint8966d agoJun 8View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$269PWCCNear Mint56d ago
$275MercariNear Mint56d ago
$258eBayNear Mint57d ago
$256MercariNear Mint60d ago
$241TCGPlayerNear Mint61d ago
$209TCGPlayerNear Mint63d ago
$243MercariNear Mint69d ago
$233TCGPlayerNear Mint72d ago
$239TCGPlayerNear Mint73d ago
$234eBayNear Mint75d ago
$230MercariNear Mint78d ago
$232Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint80d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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