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Onix — Base Set — Common

Onix

CGC 10Simulated

Onix · Base Set · Common · 56

Character: Onix

high confidencebullish8430d 17.3%
Estimated Fair Value
$413
Lowest listing $3759.3% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$345
Base Case
$413
Bull Case
$483

Price History

Dec 8Range $290 – $545Jun 5

Opportunity Score

49
  • 9% below fair value+11 pts
  • Sales accelerating+10 pts
  • Price up 17% over 30 days+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • Strong demand (10 sales/mo)+3 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish84

Onix (CGC 10) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+17.3%). Estimated fair value is $413 against a lowest active listing of $375. Valuation confidence is high based on 20-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+17.3% over 30d) with thin liquidity and rising graded population (6.6%/mo).

Risk Indicators

  • Rising graded population may pressure prices
Active Listings
20
Sales / Month
9.5
Velocity Score
48/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+25.9%
Total Graded
7,031
Gem Mint
2,710
Population Growth
+6.6%
Rising — supply pressure

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-73.3%
Grading not economical
slowing population

Population growth slowing to 1.0%/mo — supply tightening across 7150 graded.

7,150 graded · 48% gem · +1.0%/mo

Raw cost
$375
All-in cost
$404+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$413
Expected proceeds
$10830% gem → $124 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$296.22
Breakeven graded value
$1,548value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
6.0dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
46.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-13.7%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
7active listings
Recent sold avg
$390mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$336cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$345
Median
$390
Mean
$383
Max
$450

Showing 7 of 7 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps394.0650%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices416.5225%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection421.6125%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-3.3250%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)5.1920%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$336TCGPlayerGraded9056d agoJan 1View
$356eBayGraded7562d agoJan 1View
$365MercariGraded8055d agoJan 1View
$403MercariGraded6672d agoJan 1View
$406MercariGraded7364d agoJan 1View
$408MercariGraded8072d agoJan 1View
$423Facebook MarketplaceGraded6875d agoJun 10View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$346Facebook MarketplaceGraded55d ago
$450eBayGraded61d ago
$390eBayGraded63d ago
$354eBayGraded75d ago
$404Facebook MarketplaceGraded77d ago
$394Facebook MarketplaceGraded83d ago
$345MercariGraded100d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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