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Zapdos — Base Set — Rare Holo

Zapdos

Simulated

Zapdos · Base Set · Rare Holo · 16

Character: Zapdos

high confidencebullish9030d ▲22.7%
Estimated Fair Value
$86.01
Lowest listing $80.476.4% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$71.23
Base Case
$86.01
Bull Case
$102

Price History

Dec 8Range $174 – $325Jun 5

Opportunity Score

42
  • Price up 23% over 30 days+8 pts
  • 6% below fair value+8 pts
  • Low active inventory+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+5 pts
  • Strong demand (6 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish90

Zapdos is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+22.7%). Estimated fair value is $86 against a lowest active listing of $80. Valuation confidence is high based on 3-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+22.7% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
Active Listings
3
Sales / Month
6.5
Velocity Score
33/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
-3.3%
Confidence
73/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-23.3%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$80.47
All-in cost
$109+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$322
Expected proceeds
$84.0130% gem → $96.56 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$25.46
Breakeven graded value
$419value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
2.5dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
34.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
+14.8%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
19active listings
Recent sold avg
$242mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$278cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$170
Median
$209
Mean
$205
Max
$227

Showing 14 of 17 sales · 3 outliers trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps81.5350%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices87.1825%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection96.0525%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-0.6620%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$278Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7870d agoJan 1View
$286Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8175d agoJan 1View
$288eBayNear Mint9561d agoJun 10View
$292Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6662d agoJan 1View
$310Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6873d agoJan 1View
$318Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6662d agoJan 1View
$319Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6371d agoJan 1View
$321PWCCNear Mint8155d agoJan 1View
$329Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8955d agoJan 1View
$332eBayNear Mint7674d agoJan 1View
$334MercariNear Mint8761d agoJan 1View
$337Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9974d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$283Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint65d ago
$302Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint68d ago
$299TCGPlayerNear Mint69d ago
$226MercariNear Mint73d ago
$218MercariNear Mint78d ago
$216PWCCNear Mint79d ago
$227PWCCNear Mint84d ago
$214eBayNear Mint89d ago
$210eBayNear Mint89d ago
$226eBayNear Mint89d ago
$208Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint90d ago
$188Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint94d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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