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Dugtrio — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Uncommon

Dugtrio

Simulated

Dugtrio · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Uncommon · 51

Character: Dugtrio

medium confidenceneutral5230d 0.6%
Estimated Fair Value
$102
Lowest listing $95.246.4% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$87.89
Base Case
$102
Bull Case
$116

Price History

Dec 8Range $60.18 – $83.06Jun 5

Opportunity Score

28
  • 6% below fair value+8 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+5 pts
  • Low active inventory+3 pts
  • Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral52

Dugtrio is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-0.6%). Estimated fair value is $102 against a lowest active listing of $95. Valuation confidence is medium based on 7-plus modeled comparable sales.

Neutral: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
7
Sales / Month
4.5
Velocity Score
23/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+2.4%
Confidence
68/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-20.0%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$95.24
All-in cost
$124+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$381
Expected proceeds
$99.4330% gem → $114 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$24.81
Breakeven graded value
$476value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.9dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
74.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-24.6%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
6active listings
Recent sold avg
$72.87mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$54.94cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$57.86
Median
$73.72
Mean
$73.75
Max
$87.37

Showing 34 of 34 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps99.1850%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices107.0525%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection99.7925%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)0.4820%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$54.94MercariNear Mint8170d agoJan 1View
$59.82PWCCNear Mint8963d agoJan 1View
$66.03eBayNear Mint7061d agoJan 1View
$68.88PWCCNear Mint6260d agoJan 1View
$70.23PWCCNear Mint9374d agoJun 8View
$70.39TCGPlayerNear Mint7864d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$57.86Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint55d ago
$64.42PWCCNear Mint55d ago
$68.47PWCCNear Mint58d ago
$68.85PWCCNear Mint58d ago
$69.07MercariNear Mint61d ago
$68.37Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint62d ago
$66.58TCGPlayerNear Mint63d ago
$69.99Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint66d ago
$76.02eBayNear Mint68d ago
$76.86MercariNear Mint69d ago
$74.24Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint72d ago
$84.44eBayNear Mint77d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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