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Pikachu Secret Rare

Simulated

Pikachu Secret Rare · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Secret Rare · 33/207

Character: Pikachu

high confidencebearish3030d 11.7%
Estimated Fair Value
$424
Lowest listing $35117.2% below
Bear Case
$368
Base Case
$424
Bull Case
$479

Price History

Dec 2Range $252 – $423May 30

Opportunity Score

43
  • 17% below fair value+20 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (7 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish30

Pikachu Secret Rare is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-11.7%). Estimated fair value is $424 against a lowest active listing of $351. Valuation confidence is high based on 12-plus recent comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-11.7% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
12
Sales / Month
7.0
Velocity Score
35/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
-7.0%
Confidence
94/100

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps443.8550%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices416.925%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection415.8325%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-1.3920%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$266PWCCNear Mint7016d agoJan 1View
$268Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8816d agoJan 1View
$269eBayNear Mint616d agoJan 1View
$277MercariNear Mint9813d agoJan 1View
$278eBayNear Mint892d agoJan 1View
$279TCGPlayerNear Mint8218d agoJan 1View
$281MercariNear Mint9711d agoJan 1View
$291Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint644d agoJan 1View
$296PWCCNear Mint768d agoJan 1View
$302MercariNear Mint8610d agoJan 1View
$306TCGPlayerNear Mint8719d agoJan 1View
$306TCGPlayerNear Mint962d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$298eBayNear Mint5d ago
$263eBayNear Mint7d ago
$274MercariNear Mint7d ago
$250TCGPlayerNear Mint9d ago
$264PWCCNear Mint11d ago
$281Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint14d ago
$272TCGPlayerNear Mint16d ago
$255PWCCNear Mint17d ago
$272PWCCNear Mint17d ago
$277Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint18d ago
$298MercariNear Mint20d ago
$310MercariNear Mint22d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Related Assets

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
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  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
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Umbreon PromoScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
  • 11% below fair value+13 pts
  • Sales accelerating+8 pts
  • Low active inventory+6 pts
$322$28611.2%10.6%452
Umbreon V (Full Art)Scarlet & Violet 151BGS 9.5Simulated
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  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
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Umbreon ex (Illustration Rare)Scarlet & Violet 151Simulated
  • Price up 19% over 30 days+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • 6% below fair value+7 pts
$274$2585.9%18.7%1437
Pikachu V (Full Art)Hidden FatesSimulated
  • 16% below fair value+19 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
$196$16416.4%17.9%1744
Pikachu ex (Illustration Rare)HeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
  • 11% below fair value+13 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
$426$38110.7%13.3%640