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Raticate — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Uncommon

Raticate

BGS 9Simulated

Raticate · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Uncommon · 20

Character: Raticate

high confidenceneutral4830d 5.4%
Estimated Fair Value
$32.83
Lowest listing $27.1317.4% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$27.51
Base Case
$32.83
Bull Case
$38.16

Price History

Dec 8Range $64.39 – $120Jun 5

Opportunity Score

54
  • 17% below fair value+20 pts
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (14 sales/mo)+4 pts
  • Sales accelerating+3 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral48

Raticate (BGS 9) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-5.4%). Estimated fair value is $33 against a lowest active listing of $27. Valuation confidence is high based on 12-plus modeled comparable sales.

Neutral: softening prices (-5.4% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
12
Sales / Month
13.5
Velocity Score
68/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+6.5%
Total Graded
7,546
Gem Mint
3,603
Population Growth
+0.2%
Stable supply

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-84.7%
Grading not economical
slowing population

Population growth slowing to 1.4%/mo — supply tightening across 2537 graded.

2,537 graded · 54% gem · +1.4%/mo

Raw cost
$27.13
All-in cost
$56.13+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$32.83
Expected proceeds
$8.5730% gem → $9.85 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$47.56
Breakeven graded value
$215value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.7dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
74.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
+3.1%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
5active listings
Recent sold avg
$81.48mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$83.99cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$68.54
Median
$82.99
Mean
$82.47
Max
$97.09

Showing 23 of 23 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps33.1250%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices31.0725%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection32.4225%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-0.150%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)1.3120%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$83.99eBayGraded6965d agoJan 1View
$86.00eBayGraded9160d agoJun 9View
$87.78TCGPlayerGraded9856d agoJun 6View
$98.99Facebook MarketplaceGraded8858d agoJan 1View
$107eBayGraded8257d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$97.09TCGPlayerGraded55d ago
$90.62TCGPlayerGraded57d ago
$90.26TCGPlayerGraded58d ago
$81.71Facebook MarketplaceGraded58d ago
$88.05TCGPlayerGraded60d ago
$82.99Facebook MarketplaceGraded61d ago
$81.12PWCCGraded63d ago
$68.54TCGPlayerGraded65d ago
$79.02eBayGraded66d ago
$72.64Facebook MarketplaceGraded73d ago
$78.67eBayGraded78d ago
$70.26PWCCGraded79d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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