Charmeleon
PSA 9.5SimulatedCharmeleon · XY Evolutions · Uncommon · 10
Character: Charmeleon
Price History
Opportunity Score
35- Reputable seller+7 pts
- 6% below fair value+7 pts
- Price up 16% over 30 days+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+5 pts
- Population growth slowing+3 pts
- Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish84Charmeleon (PSA 9.5) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+16.2%). Estimated fair value is $81 against a lowest active listing of $76. Valuation confidence is medium based on 23-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+16.2% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growing 4.9%/mo — steady supply across 7697 graded.
7,697 graded · 33% gem · +4.9%/mo
- Raw cost
- $75.72
- All-in cost
- $105+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $80.59
- Expected proceeds
- $21.0330% gem → $24.18 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$83.69
- Breakeven graded value
- $401value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.8dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 86.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- +4.0%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 3active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $87.31mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $90.81cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $68.53
- Median
- $90.41
- Mean
- $88.98
- Max
- $104
Showing 36 of 36 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 80.67 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 86.34 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 87.47 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -1.72 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | -2.13 | 20% |
Active Listings
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $96.96 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 59d ago |
| $98.43 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 59d ago |
| $96.97 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 61d ago |
| $93.05 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 63d ago |
| $92.15 | PWCC | Graded | 64d ago |
| $99.52 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 67d ago |
| $92.61 | PWCC | Graded | 69d ago |
| $95.97 | PWCC | Graded | 69d ago |
| $95.05 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 69d ago |
| $85.15 | Mercari | Graded | 74d ago |
| $81.61 | PWCC | Graded | 74d ago |
| $74.68 | eBay | Graded | 75d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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