PokéAlpha
Back to dashboard

Gengar VMAX (Alt Art)

PSA 9.5Simulated

Gengar VMAX (Alt Art) · Evolving Skies · Alt Art · 27/237

Character: Gengar

medium confidencebullish8930d 20.8%
Estimated Fair Value
$663
Lowest listing $710
Bear Case
$571
Base Case
$663
Bull Case
$759

Price History

Dec 2Range $365$548May 30

Opportunity Score

46
  • Price up 21% over 30 days+8 pts
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • Low active inventory+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+5 pts
  • Sales accelerating+4 pts
  • Strong demand (6 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish89

Gengar VMAX (Alt Art) (PSA 9.5) is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+20.8%). Estimated fair value is $663 against a lowest active listing of $710. Valuation confidence is medium based on 3-plus recent comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+20.8% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
Active Listings
3
Sales / Month
5.5
Velocity Score
28/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+10.3%
Total Graded
5,674
Gem Mint
1,808
Population Growth
+0.3%
Stable supply

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps604.4150%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices729.5725%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection663.3325%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-0.1350%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)2.0620%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$505Facebook MarketplaceGraded6817d agoJan 1View
$526eBayGraded666d agoJan 1View
$568TCGPlayerGraded9014d agoJan 1View
$623Facebook MarketplaceGraded794d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$507MercariGraded11d ago
$513MercariGraded17d ago
$474eBayGraded20d ago
$428Facebook MarketplaceGraded22d ago
$418MercariGraded34d ago
$430PWCCGraded37d ago
$397MercariGraded41d ago
$382PWCCGraded42d ago
$368PWCCGraded45d ago
$440TCGPlayerGraded50d ago
$400TCGPlayerGraded53d ago
$454PWCCGraded55d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
Charizard Holo RareEvolving SkiesSimulated
  • 10% below fair value+12 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
$244$2209.9%4.3%742
Charizard ex (Illustration Rare)Evolving SkiesBGS 9.5Simulated
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • 6% below fair value+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$575$5386.5%8.2%1738
MoonbreonEvolving SkiesPSA 10Simulated
  • 8% below fair value+10 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
$1,651$1,5148.3%6.5%2242
Umbreon Holo RareEvolving SkiesBGS 9Simulated
  • Low active inventory+8 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
$303$306-1.1%3.5%234
Rayquaza VMAX (Alt Art)Evolving SkiesPSA 10Simulated
  • 18% below fair value+21 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
$712$58517.9%1.4%1556
Umbreon Secret RareEvolving SkiesCGC 9Simulated
  • 10% below fair value+11 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
$709$6419.6%10.4%1044