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Beedrill — Base Set — Rare

Beedrill

Simulated

Beedrill · Base Set · Rare · 17

Character: Beedrill

high confidenceneutral6030d ▲1.7%
Estimated Fair Value
$248
Lowest listing $21114.7% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$218
Base Case
$248
Bull Case
$277

Price History

Dec 8Range $155 – $252Jun 5

Opportunity Score

48
  • 15% below fair value+17 pts
  • Sales accelerating+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (8 sales/mo)+3 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral60

Beedrill is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+1.7%). Estimated fair value is $248 against a lowest active listing of $211. Valuation confidence is high based on 9-plus modeled comparable sales.

Neutral: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
9
Sales / Month
8.5
Velocity Score
43/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+19.8%
Confidence
97/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-8.2%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$211
All-in cost
$240+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$846
Expected proceeds
$22130% gem → $254 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$19.69
Breakeven graded value
$921value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.2dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
57.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-16.8%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
16active listings
Recent sold avg
$219mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$182cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$182
Median
$226
Mean
$223
Max
$255

Showing 39 of 39 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps236.8250%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices241.3325%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection238.8925%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)3.9720%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$182eBayNear Mint8257d agoJan 1View
$186PWCCNear Mint9575d agoJan 1View
$187PWCCNear Mint9573d agoJan 1View
$188Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7372d agoJun 8View
$189Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6956d agoJan 1View
$189PWCCNear Mint8570d agoJan 1View
$193Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9270d agoJan 1View
$200eBayNear Mint9457d agoJun 6View
$204PWCCNear Mint6267d agoJan 1View
$206TCGPlayerNear Mint9960d agoJun 8View
$206TCGPlayerNear Mint8962d agoJan 1View
$211TCGPlayerNear Mint7563d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$222MercariNear Mint55d ago
$205eBayNear Mint56d ago
$204PWCCNear Mint59d ago
$237Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint60d ago
$239Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint64d ago
$229PWCCNear Mint64d ago
$226TCGPlayerNear Mint67d ago
$233Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint68d ago
$243MercariNear Mint71d ago
$206Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint73d ago
$208eBayNear Mint76d ago
$207eBayNear Mint76d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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Same character or set.

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  • Low active inventory+9 pts
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  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
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