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Exeggutor — Prismatic Evolutions — Uncommon

Exeggutor

Simulated

Exeggutor · Prismatic Evolutions · Uncommon · 2

Character: Exeggutor

high confidencebearish3030d ▼16.4%
Estimated Fair Value
$8.53
Lowest listing $6.7620.8% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$6.60
Base Case
$8.53
Bull Case
$10.39

Price History

Dec 8Range $30.18 – $73.03Jun 5

Opportunity Score

64
  • 21% below fair value+24 pts
  • Sales accelerating+11 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • Strong demand (20 sales/mo)+6 pts
  • Low active inventory+4 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish30

Exeggutor is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-16.4%). Estimated fair value is $9 against a lowest active listing of $7. Valuation confidence is high based on 6-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-16.4% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
6
Sales / Month
19.5
Velocity Score
98/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+27.0%
Confidence
84/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-80.3%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$6.76
All-in cost
$35.76+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$27.04
Expected proceeds
$7.0630% gem → $8.11 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$28.70
Breakeven graded value
$137value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.1dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
56.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-11.1%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
18active listings
Recent sold avg
$67.81mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$60.27cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$54.87
Median
$66.80
Mean
$66.07
Max
$75.38

Showing 31 of 33 sales · 2 outliers trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps8.4150%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices7.8125%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection7.7425%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)5.4120%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$60.27TCGPlayerNear Mint7364d agoJan 1View
$60.88eBayNear Mint7475d agoJan 1View
$61.51eBayNear Mint8469d agoJan 1View
$61.87PWCCNear Mint8165d agoJan 1View
$64.52PWCCNear Mint9066d agoJan 1View
$66.70MercariNear Mint6374d agoJun 9View
$66.94TCGPlayerNear Mint8871d agoJan 1View
$67.22TCGPlayerNear Mint6370d agoJan 1View
$67.74eBayNear Mint9169d agoJan 1View
$69.53Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8967d agoJan 1View
$71.05PWCCNear Mint6074d agoJan 1View
$72.19TCGPlayerNear Mint8760d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$63.24PWCCNear Mint54d ago
$61.89Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint54d ago
$71.42TCGPlayerNear Mint55d ago
$65.35Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint55d ago
$69.67Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint56d ago
$68.19MercariNear Mint56d ago
$64.60PWCCNear Mint57d ago
$60.76PWCCNear Mint63d ago
$60.98TCGPlayerNear Mint64d ago
$69.32TCGPlayerNear Mint66d ago
$62.75Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint70d ago
$67.57PWCCNear Mint73d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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