Metapod
SimulatedMetapod · HeartGold SoulSilver · Uncommon · 46
Character: Metapod
Price History
Opportunity Score
50- 14% below fair value+17 pts
- Sales accelerating+9 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Strong demand (12 sales/mo)+4 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral59Metapod is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-0.0%). Estimated fair value is $51 against a lowest active listing of $44. Valuation confidence is high based on 12-plus modeled comparable sales.
Neutral: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
No population data reported for this asset.
- Raw cost
- $43.62
- All-in cost
- $72.62+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $174
- Expected proceeds
- $45.5430% gem → $52.34 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$27.08
- Breakeven graded value
- $278value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.8dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 79.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -20.3%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 4active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $78.28mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $62.40cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $65.38
- Median
- $81.72
- Mean
- $80.51
- Max
- $89.87
Showing 20 of 24 sales · 4 outliers trimmed
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 48.76 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 50.98 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 46.2 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 4.72 | 20% |
Active Listings
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $70.49 | Mercari | Near Mint | 54d ago |
| $64.23 | Mercari | Near Mint | 55d ago |
| $72.89 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 55d ago |
| $67.43 | eBay | Near Mint | 55d ago |
| $65.38 | Mercari | Near Mint | 57d ago |
| $82.87 | eBay | Near Mint | 63d ago |
| $89.87 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 72d ago |
| $82.34 | Mercari | Near Mint | 76d ago |
| $83.89 | eBay | Near Mint | 76d ago |
| $84.43 | eBay | Near Mint | 79d ago |
| $74.90 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 84d ago |
| $89.81 | eBay | Near Mint | 84d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HeracrossHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $166 | $148 | 10.9% | 3.1% | 14 | 32 |
 LaprasHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $189 | $162 | 14.1% | 1.9% | 14 | 52 |
 AzumarillHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $103 | $95.74 | 7.2% | 3.1% | 12 | 39 |
 ChanseyHeartGold SoulSilverPSA 10Simulated
| $272 | $229 | 15.9% | 3.3% | 15 | 48 |
 FlaaffyHeartGold SoulSilverBGS 9Simulated
| $183 | $153 | 16.3% | 12.9% | 12 | 50 |
 ClefairyHeartGold SoulSilverPSA 9Simulated
| $124 | $113 | 8.5% | 12.8% | 3 | 50 |