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Rayquaza Ultra Rare

BGS 9Simulated

Rayquaza Ultra Rare · Prismatic Evolutions · Ultra Rare · 16/180

Character: Rayquaza

medium confidencebullish7030d 8.1%
Estimated Fair Value
$434
Lowest listing $451
Bear Case
$363
Base Case
$434
Bull Case
$506

Price History

Dec 2Range $325$495May 30

Opportunity Score

44
  • Sales accelerating+10 pts
  • Low active inventory+8 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts
  • High valuation confidence+5 pts
  • Population growth slowing+4 pts
  • Price up 8% over 30 days+3 pts
  • Strong demand (6 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish70

Rayquaza Ultra Rare (BGS 9) is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+8.1%). Estimated fair value is $434 against a lowest active listing of $451. Valuation confidence is medium based on 2-plus recent comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+8.1% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
Active Listings
2
Sales / Month
6.0
Velocity Score
30/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+26.0%
Total Graded
1,662
Gem Mint
731
Population Growth
+2.3%
Slowing

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps403.150%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices465.6525%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection397.1425%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-1.1550%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)5.220%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$402eBayGraded8616d agoJan 1View
$412TCGPlayerGraded8714d agoJan 1View
$414MercariGraded7822h agoJun 2View
$426MercariGraded828d agoJan 1View
$455eBayGraded6314d agoJan 1View
$464TCGPlayerGraded792d agoJan 1View
$467MercariGraded8910d agoJan 1View
$471eBayGraded9111d agoJun 2View
$483Facebook MarketplaceGraded6216d agoJan 1View
$495eBayGraded693d agoJan 1View
$499MercariGraded7815d agoJan 1View
$508TCGPlayerGraded9617d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$454PWCCGraded2d ago
$435MercariGraded7d ago
$471Facebook MarketplaceGraded9d ago
$476TCGPlayerGraded10d ago
$488PWCCGraded15d ago
$430Facebook MarketplaceGraded18d ago
$427PWCCGraded20d ago
$388eBayGraded21d ago
$369TCGPlayerGraded31d ago
$393MercariGraded34d ago
$417TCGPlayerGraded35d ago
$366TCGPlayerGraded35d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
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  • 10% below fair value+12 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
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  • 9% below fair value+10 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
$541$4958.6%9.9%2338