PokéAlpha
Live data not configuredNumbers are backed by a real but dated snapshot. Enable real marketplace listings for live intelligence.How to enable
Back to dashboard
Lucario ex — Prismatic Evolutions — Double Rare

Lucario ex

Simulated

Lucario ex · Prismatic Evolutions · Double Rare · 51

Character: Lucario

high confidenceneutral5430d 3.0%
Estimated Fair Value
$138
Lowest listing $1305.8% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$118
Base Case
$138
Bull Case
$159

Price History

Dec 8Range $79.50 – $132Jun 5

Opportunity Score

31
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • 6% below fair value+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (14 sales/mo)+4 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral54

Lucario ex is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-3.0%). Estimated fair value is $138 against a lowest active listing of $130. Valuation confidence is high based on 21-plus modeled comparable sales.

Neutral: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
21
Sales / Month
13.5
Velocity Score
68/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
-1.5%
Confidence
97/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-14.6%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$130
All-in cost
$159+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$521
Expected proceeds
$13630% gem → $156 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$23.26
Breakeven graded value
$611value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
2.0dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
50.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-12.1%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
19active listings
Recent sold avg
$115mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$101cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$87.74
Median
$107
Mean
$108
Max
$127

Showing 34 of 34 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps134.350%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices150.2825%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection136.0925%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-0.2920%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$101eBayNear Mint7266d agoJan 1View
$105MercariNear Mint8256d agoJan 1View
$105Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7868d agoJan 1View
$105eBayNear Mint7064d agoJan 1View
$107TCGPlayerNear Mint6260d agoJan 1View
$108Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8558d agoJan 1View
$110MercariNear Mint9261d agoJun 7View
$116TCGPlayerNear Mint6956d agoJan 1View
$117PWCCNear Mint6655d agoJan 1View
$119Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8072d agoJan 1View
$119Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6856d agoJan 1View
$120eBayNear Mint8775d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$120Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint54d ago
$114MercariNear Mint55d ago
$112TCGPlayerNear Mint55d ago
$125eBayNear Mint61d ago
$126Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint62d ago
$120Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint64d ago
$124TCGPlayerNear Mint65d ago
$122PWCCNear Mint68d ago
$114eBayNear Mint69d ago
$127TCGPlayerNear Mint72d ago
$122MercariNear Mint74d ago
$115eBayNear Mint76d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Related Assets

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
Umbreon — Prismatic Evolutions — Rare
UmbreonPrismatic EvolutionsPSA 9Simulated
  • 11% below fair value+13 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$16,897$14,99111.3%4.3%2245
Espeon — Prismatic Evolutions — Rare
EspeonPrismatic EvolutionsSimulated
  • 9% below fair value+10 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$1,555$1,4228.5%9.2%1935
Sylveon ex — Prismatic Evolutions — Double Rare
Sylveon exPrismatic EvolutionsPSA 10Simulated
  • 16% below fair value+19 pts
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$3,648$3,07015.8%4.9%1056
Prismatic Evolutions Elite Trainer Box — Prismatic Evolutions — Sealed
Prismatic Evolutions Elite Trainer BoxPrismatic EvolutionsSimulated
  • Price up 30% over 30 days+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • 6% below fair value+7 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$1,785$1,6825.8%29.7%1439
Lucario ex — Prismatic Evolutions — Double Rare
Lucario exPrismatic EvolutionsSimulated
  • Sales accelerating+11 pts
  • 9% below fair value+10 pts
  • Price up 26% over 30 days+8 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$730$6668.8%26.1%751
Prismatic Evolutions Booster Bundle — Prismatic Evolutions — Sealed
Prismatic Evolutions Booster BundlePrismatic EvolutionsSimulated
  • 12% below fair value+14 pts
  • Price up 30% over 30 days+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$284$25111.8%29.9%845