Rayquaza Ultra Rare
BGS 9SimulatedRayquaza Ultra Rare · Prismatic Evolutions · Ultra Rare · 16/180
Character: Rayquaza
Price History
Opportunity Score
44- Sales accelerating+10 pts
- Low active inventory+8 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+5 pts
- High valuation confidence+5 pts
- Population growth slowing+4 pts
- Price up 8% over 30 days+3 pts
- Strong demand (6 sales/mo)+2 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish70Rayquaza Ultra Rare (BGS 9) is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+8.1%). Estimated fair value is $434 against a lowest active listing of $451. Valuation confidence is medium based on 2-plus recent comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+8.1% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 403.1 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 465.65 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 397.14 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -1.15 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 5.2 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $402 | eBay | Graded | 86 | 16d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $412 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 87 | 14d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $414 | Mercari | Graded | 78 | 22h ago | Jun 2 | View |
| $426 | Mercari | Graded | 82 | 8d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $455 | eBay | Graded | 63 | 14d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $464 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 79 | 2d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $467 | Mercari | Graded | 89 | 10d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $471 | eBay | Graded | 91 | 11d ago | Jun 2 | View |
| $483 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 62 | 16d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $495 | eBay | Graded | 69 | 3d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $499 | Mercari | Graded | 78 | 15d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $508 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 96 | 17d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $454 | PWCC | Graded | 2d ago |
| $435 | Mercari | Graded | 7d ago |
| $471 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 9d ago |
| $476 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 10d ago |
| $488 | PWCC | Graded | 15d ago |
| $430 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 18d ago |
| $427 | PWCC | Graded | 20d ago |
| $388 | eBay | Graded | 21d ago |
| $369 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 31d ago |
| $393 | Mercari | Graded | 34d ago |
| $417 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 35d ago |
| $366 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 35d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Umbreon VMAX (Alt Art)Prismatic EvolutionsSimulated
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Rayquaza VMAX (Alt Art)Evolving SkiesPSA 10Simulated
| $653 | $526 | 19.4% | 15.6% | 13 | 52 |
Rayquaza Ultra RareFossilSimulated
| $1,159 | $1,038 | 10.4% | 3.8% | 7 | 40 |
Pikachu VMAX (Alt Art)Prismatic EvolutionsSimulated
| $541 | $495 | 8.6% | 9.9% | 23 | 38 |