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Vaporeon VMAX — Evolving Skies — Rare Holo VMAX

Vaporeon VMAX

Simulated

Vaporeon VMAX · Evolving Skies · Rare Holo VMAX · 30

Character: Vaporeon

high confidencebullish9530d ▲14.9%
Estimated Fair Value
$14.59
Lowest listing $13.835.2% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$12.17
Base Case
$14.59
Bull Case
$17.12

Price History

Dec 8Range $36.40 – $67.17Jun 5

Opportunity Score

40
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • 5% below fair value+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Price up 15% over 30 days+6 pts
  • Strong demand (17 sales/mo)+5 pts
  • Low active inventory+3 pts
  • Sales accelerating+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish95

Vaporeon VMAX is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+14.9%). Estimated fair value is $15 against a lowest active listing of $14. Valuation confidence is high based on 7-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+14.9% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
7
Sales / Month
17.0
Velocity Score
85/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+4.1%
Confidence
90/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-66.3%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$13.83
All-in cost
$42.83+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$55.32
Expected proceeds
$14.4430% gem → $16.60 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$28.39
Breakeven graded value
$164value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.6dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
61.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-17.7%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
12active listings
Recent sold avg
$56.97mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$46.90cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$48.54
Median
$55.75
Mean
$56.14
Max
$65.16

Showing 28 of 29 sales · 1 outlier trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps13.9450%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices15.3525%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection14.6725%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)0.8220%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$46.90MercariNear Mint6862d agoJun 9View
$47.70PWCCNear Mint6970d agoJan 1View
$48.23Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8270d agoJun 7View
$48.43TCGPlayerNear Mint9361d agoJan 1View
$49.95eBayNear Mint9069d agoJan 1View
$53.44MercariNear Mint9755d agoJan 1View
$55.60MercariNear Mint9074d agoJan 1View
$55.70PWCCNear Mint10072d agoJan 1View
$57.61PWCCNear Mint7359d agoJan 1View
$58.77TCGPlayerNear Mint7855d agoJun 6View
$59.75MercariNear Mint6469d agoJan 1View
$61.29Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8072d agoJun 9View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$48.54Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint57d ago
$55.39Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint58d ago
$53.82eBayNear Mint60d ago
$51.22eBayNear Mint62d ago
$55.12TCGPlayerNear Mint63d ago
$56.51MercariNear Mint64d ago
$49.89Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint66d ago
$50.42eBayNear Mint66d ago
$49.40MercariNear Mint68d ago
$65.16PWCCNear Mint73d ago
$68.81PWCCNear Mint73d ago
$60.61MercariNear Mint75d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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