Vaporeon

PSA 9Simulated

Vaporeon · Prismatic Evolutions · Rare · 22

Character: Vaporeon

high confidencebullish9130d 16.2%

Estimated Fair Value

$145

Lowest listing $1441.0% below

Search live listings:eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active

Bear Case

$122

Base Case

$145

Bull Case

$170

Price History

Dec 8Range $61.53 – $107Jun 5

Opportunity Score

Population growth slowing+8 pts
Price up 16% over 30 days+7 pts
High valuation confidence+6 pts
High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
Reputable seller+5 pts
Low active inventory+5 pts
Sales accelerating+4 pts
Strong demand (8 sales/mo)+2 pts
1% below fair value+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish91

Vaporeon (PSA 9) is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+16.2%). Estimated fair value is $145 against a lowest active listing of $144. Valuation confidence is high based on 5-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+16.2% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings

Sales / Month

7.5

Velocity Score

38/100

Moderate

Sales Velocity 30d

+10.2%

Total Graded

6,921

Gem Mint

2,963

Population Growth

-0.6%

Stable supply

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)

-78.1%

Grading not economical

steady population

Population growing 2.9%/mo — steady supply across 6865 graded.

6,865 graded · 39% gem · +2.9%/mo

Raw cost: $144
All-in cost: $173+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem): $145
Expected proceeds: $37.8730% gem → $43.53 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card: -$134.78
Breakeven graded value: $661value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

Gem-grade rate30%

Grading fee / card$25.00

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated

Days to sell: 3.2dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through: 75.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread: -10.8%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth: 4active listings
Recent sold avg: $98.00mean over 90d
Lowest ask: $87.41cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Trim outliers (IQR)

Sold from

Sold to

Min: $84.08
Median: $97.09
Mean: $95.62
Max: $107

Showing 19 of 19 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

Signal	Detail	Reference	Weight
recent sales	Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps	127.86	50%
listing inventory	Average of active listing asking prices	158.73	25%
price trend	Recent historical price trend projection	152.76	25%
population pressure	Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)	0.29	50%
demand momentum	Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)	2.03	20%

Active Listings

Price	Marketplace	Condition	Seller	Listed	Ends	Link
$87.41	TCGPlayer	Graded	98	73d ago	Jan 1	View
$99.66	Facebook Marketplace	Graded	65	66d ago	Jan 1	View
$102	Facebook Marketplace	Graded	96	59d ago	Jan 1	View
$107	eBay	Graded	92	61d ago	Jan 1	View

Recent Sales

Price	Marketplace	Condition	Sold
$100	eBay	Graded	55d ago
$99.95	Mercari	Graded	55d ago
$102	Mercari	Graded	59d ago
$88.59	Mercari	Graded	61d ago
$89.96	Facebook Marketplace	Graded	61d ago
$87.55	Facebook Marketplace	Graded	65d ago
$97.09	Mercari	Graded	70d ago
$107	Facebook Marketplace	Graded	70d ago
$106	TCGPlayer	Graded	73d ago
$95.42	Facebook Marketplace	Graded	78d ago
$102	PWCC	Graded	79d ago
$101	PWCC	Graded	88d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price: Simulated
Fair value basis: Simulated
Lowest ask (deal): Simulated
Active listings: Simulated
Card image: Live
Recent sales: Simulated
Population data: Simulated
Liquidity metrics: Simulated
Liquidity analytics: Simulated
Price history: Simulated

Same character or set.

Asset	Fair Value	Lowest	Discount	30d	Avail	Score
UmbreonPrismatic EvolutionsPSA 9Simulated 10% below fair value+12 pts High listing quality (graded)+6 pts Reputable seller+5 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$16,099	$14,519	9.8%	2.4%	8	29
EspeonPrismatic EvolutionsSimulated 15% below fair value+18 pts Sales accelerating+7 pts High valuation confidence+7 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$1,608	$1,363	15.3%	6.3%	13	52
Sylveon exPrismatic EvolutionsPSA 10Simulated Population growth slowing+7 pts Low active inventory+6 pts High valuation confidence+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$3,545	$3,458	2.5%	1.0%	4	39
Prismatic Evolutions Elite Trainer BoxPrismatic EvolutionsSimulated Sales accelerating+9 pts Price up 23% over 30 days+8 pts High valuation confidence+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$1,812	$1,743	3.9%	22.7%	5	48
Lucario exPrismatic EvolutionsSimulated 7% below fair value+8 pts Price up 22% over 30 days+8 pts High valuation confidence+7 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$710	$660	7.0%	22.5%	19	44
Prismatic Evolutions Booster BundlePrismatic EvolutionsSimulated 11% below fair value+13 pts Price up 30% over 30 days+8 pts High listing quality (sealed)+6 pts eBay active eBay sold TCGplayer active	$297	$263	11.2%	30.3%	9	41

Price History

Opportunity Score

Investment Thesis

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Adjust modeled assumptions

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Comp Explorer

How Fair Value Is Built

Active Listings

Recent Sales

Signal Track Record

Data Provenance

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