
Vaporeon
PSA 9SimulatedVaporeon · Prismatic Evolutions · Rare · 22
Character: Vaporeon
Price History
Opportunity Score
44- Population growth slowing+8 pts
- Price up 16% over 30 days+7 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+5 pts
- Low active inventory+5 pts
- Sales accelerating+4 pts
- Strong demand (8 sales/mo)+2 pts
- 1% below fair value+1 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish91Vaporeon (PSA 9) is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+16.2%). Estimated fair value is $145 against a lowest active listing of $144. Valuation confidence is high based on 5-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+16.2% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growing 2.9%/mo — steady supply across 6865 graded.
6,865 graded · 39% gem · +2.9%/mo
- Raw cost
- $144
- All-in cost
- $173+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $145
- Expected proceeds
- $37.8730% gem → $43.53 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$134.78
- Breakeven graded value
- $661value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 3.2dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 75.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -10.8%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 4active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $98.00mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $87.41cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $84.08
- Median
- $97.09
- Mean
- $95.62
- Max
- $107
Showing 19 of 19 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 127.86 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 158.73 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 152.76 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | 0.29 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 2.03 | 20% |
Active Listings
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | eBay | Graded | 55d ago |
| $99.95 | Mercari | Graded | 55d ago |
| $102 | Mercari | Graded | 59d ago |
| $88.59 | Mercari | Graded | 61d ago |
| $89.96 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 61d ago |
| $87.55 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 65d ago |
| $97.09 | Mercari | Graded | 70d ago |
| $107 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 70d ago |
| $106 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 73d ago |
| $95.42 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 78d ago |
| $102 | PWCC | Graded | 79d ago |
| $101 | PWCC | Graded | 88d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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