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Vaporeon — Prismatic Evolutions — Rare

Vaporeon

PSA 9Simulated

Vaporeon · Prismatic Evolutions · Rare · 22

Character: Vaporeon

medium confidencebearish1230d ▼30.4%
Estimated Fair Value
$128
Lowest listing $91.7628.1% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$106
Base Case
$128
Bull Case
$148

Price History

Dec 8Range $61.53 – $107Jun 5

Opportunity Score

61
  • 28% below fair value+33 pts
  • Sales accelerating+11 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts
  • High valuation confidence+5 pts
  • Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish12

Vaporeon (PSA 9) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-30.4%). Estimated fair value is $128 against a lowest active listing of $92. Valuation confidence is medium based on 11-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-30.4% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
11
Sales / Month
3.5
Velocity Score
18/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+27.4%
Total Graded
4,127
Gem Mint
1,527
Population Growth
+4.6%
Slowing

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-72.4%
Grading not economical
steady population

Population growing 2.9%/mo — steady supply across 6865 graded.

6,865 graded · 39% gem · +2.9%/mo

Raw cost
$91.76
All-in cost
$121+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$128
Expected proceeds
$33.3330% gem → $38.32 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$87.43
Breakeven graded value
$463value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
3.2dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
75.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-10.8%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
4active listings
Recent sold avg
$98.00mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$87.41cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$84.08
Median
$97.09
Mean
$95.62
Max
$107

Showing 19 of 19 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps138.4350%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices106.7125%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection112.1625%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-2.2950%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)5.4720%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$87.41TCGPlayerGraded9873d agoJan 1View
$99.66Facebook MarketplaceGraded6566d agoJan 1View
$102Facebook MarketplaceGraded9659d agoJan 1View
$107eBayGraded9261d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$100eBayGraded55d ago
$99.95MercariGraded56d ago
$102MercariGraded59d ago
$88.59MercariGraded61d ago
$89.96Facebook MarketplaceGraded61d ago
$87.55Facebook MarketplaceGraded65d ago
$97.09MercariGraded70d ago
$107Facebook MarketplaceGraded70d ago
$106TCGPlayerGraded73d ago
$95.42Facebook MarketplaceGraded78d ago
$102PWCCGraded79d ago
$101PWCCGraded88d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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