Noctowl
BGS 10SimulatedNoctowl · HeartGold SoulSilver · Rare Holo · 8
Character: Noctowl
Price History
Opportunity Score
58- 21% below fair value+25 pts
- Sales accelerating+9 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Strong demand (16 sales/mo)+5 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish19Noctowl (BGS 10) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-20.1%). Estimated fair value is $180 against a lowest active listing of $142. Valuation confidence is high based on 18-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-20.1% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and rising graded population (6.5%/mo).
Risk Indicators
- Rising graded population may pressure prices
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growth slowing to -0.9%/mo — supply tightening across 3235 graded.
3,235 graded · 22% gem · -0.9%/mo
- Raw cost
- $142
- All-in cost
- $171+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $180
- Expected proceeds
- $47.0530% gem → $54.08 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$123.49
- Breakeven graded value
- $653value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.4dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 69.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- +13.5%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 10active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $139mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $158cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $108
- Median
- $131
- Mean
- $133
- Max
- $165
Showing 33 of 35 sales · 2 outliers trimmed
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 189.03 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 162.44 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 172.35 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -3.26 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 4.57 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $158 | Mercari | Graded | 90 | 70d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $160 | eBay | Graded | 64 | 58d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $161 | PWCC | Graded | 67 | 68d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $164 | eBay | Graded | 66 | 68d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $170 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 98 | 61d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $181 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 85 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $181 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 93 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $182 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 87 | 68d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $186 | PWCC | Graded | 92 | 62d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $207 | Mercari | Graded | 65 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $189 | eBay | Graded | 54d ago |
| $173 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 56d ago |
| $162 | Mercari | Graded | 58d ago |
| $164 | eBay | Graded | 60d ago |
| $157 | Mercari | Graded | 61d ago |
| $149 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 61d ago |
| $165 | eBay | Graded | 62d ago |
| $162 | eBay | Graded | 64d ago |
| $138 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 71d ago |
| $115 | PWCC | Graded | 74d ago |
| $111 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 76d ago |
| $123 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 78d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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