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Venomoth — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Uncommon

Venomoth

Simulated

Venomoth · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Uncommon · 49

Character: Venomoth

high confidencebullish7130d ▲5.8%
Estimated Fair Value
$143
Lowest listing $12413.3% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$122
Base Case
$143
Bull Case
$164

Price History

Dec 8Range $56.75 – $87.44Jun 5

Opportunity Score

46
  • 13% below fair value+16 pts
  • Sales accelerating+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • Strong demand (11 sales/mo)+3 pts
  • Price up 6% over 30 days+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish71

Venomoth is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+5.8%). Estimated fair value is $143 against a lowest active listing of $124. Valuation confidence is high based on 13-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+5.8% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
13
Sales / Month
11.0
Velocity Score
55/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+17.0%
Confidence
97/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-15.4%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$124
All-in cost
$153+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$495
Expected proceeds
$12930% gem → $149 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$23.55
Breakeven graded value
$585value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.6dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
45.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-5.5%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
21active listings
Recent sold avg
$73.55mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$69.51cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$61.92
Median
$75.24
Mean
$74.87
Max
$83.40

Showing 26 of 26 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps137.5250%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices140.825%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection136.5725%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)3.4120%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$69.51TCGPlayerNear Mint6967d agoJan 1View
$69.61Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8656d agoJun 8View
$71.09TCGPlayerNear Mint7357d agoJan 1View
$71.10TCGPlayerNear Mint8473d agoJan 1View
$72.28MercariNear Mint6868d agoJun 6View
$73.74TCGPlayerNear Mint6163d agoJan 1View
$74.38eBayNear Mint7556d agoJan 1View
$76.54TCGPlayerNear Mint6269d agoJan 1View
$77.89TCGPlayerNear Mint7561d agoJan 1View
$78.12eBayNear Mint9165d agoJan 1View
$80.11eBayNear Mint6070d agoJan 1View
$82.15MercariNear Mint7870d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$81.39eBayNear Mint54d ago
$72.55TCGPlayerNear Mint56d ago
$80.77PWCCNear Mint57d ago
$73.48MercariNear Mint63d ago
$73.79eBayNear Mint64d ago
$76.22eBayNear Mint68d ago
$73.79TCGPlayerNear Mint69d ago
$69.14Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint70d ago
$71.81Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint72d ago
$65.18eBayNear Mint75d ago
$61.92PWCCNear Mint76d ago
$62.45MercariNear Mint77d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Related Assets

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
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