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Poliwhirl — Base Set — Uncommon

Poliwhirl

Simulated

Poliwhirl · Base Set · Uncommon · 38

Character: Poliwhirl

high confidencebullish8330d 13.6%
Estimated Fair Value
$84.90
Lowest listing $77.998.1% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$72.18
Base Case
$84.90
Bull Case
$97.51

Price History

Dec 8Range $202 – $390Jun 5

Opportunity Score

41
  • 8% below fair value+10 pts
  • Sales accelerating+8 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • Price up 14% over 30 days+5 pts
  • High valuation confidence+5 pts
  • Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish83

Poliwhirl is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+13.6%). Estimated fair value is $85 against a lowest active listing of $78. Valuation confidence is high based on 19-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+13.6% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
19
Sales / Month
4.5
Velocity Score
23/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+20.0%
Confidence
73/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-23.9%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$77.99
All-in cost
$107+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$312
Expected proceeds
$81.4230% gem → $93.59 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$25.57
Breakeven graded value
$410value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.1dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
79.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-12.4%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
5active listings
Recent sold avg
$243mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$213cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$212
Median
$255
Mean
$256
Max
$304

Showing 31 of 31 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps78.5550%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices87.4825%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection81.9625%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)420%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$213PWCCNear Mint9172d agoJun 10View
$216MercariNear Mint9062d agoJan 1View
$236TCGPlayerNear Mint6268d agoJun 9View
$254eBayNear Mint8059d agoJan 1View
$266TCGPlayerNear Mint7471d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$237TCGPlayerNear Mint60d ago
$231eBayNear Mint61d ago
$212PWCCNear Mint61d ago
$237MercariNear Mint62d ago
$220eBayNear Mint65d ago
$232MercariNear Mint66d ago
$234TCGPlayerNear Mint69d ago
$227TCGPlayerNear Mint70d ago
$268eBayNear Mint74d ago
$246PWCCNear Mint75d ago
$254Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint77d ago
$263TCGPlayerNear Mint80d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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