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Leafeon — Prismatic Evolutions — Rare

Leafeon

Simulated

Leafeon · Prismatic Evolutions · Rare · 5

Character: Leafeon

medium confidencebullish7130d 8.1%
Estimated Fair Value
$51.94
Lowest listing $44.4014.5% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$43.84
Base Case
$51.94
Bull Case
$60.10

Price History

Dec 8Range $31.98 – $71.68Jun 5

Opportunity Score

54
  • 15% below fair value+17 pts
  • Sales accelerating+10 pts
  • Low active inventory+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts
  • High valuation confidence+4 pts
  • Price up 8% over 30 days+3 pts
  • Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish71

Leafeon is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+8.1%). Estimated fair value is $52 against a lowest active listing of $44. Valuation confidence is medium based on 3-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+8.1% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
Active Listings
3
Sales / Month
4.5
Velocity Score
23/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+25.4%
Confidence
58/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-36.9%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$44.40
All-in cost
$73.40+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$178
Expected proceeds
$46.3530% gem → $53.28 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$27.05
Breakeven graded value
$281value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
2.7dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
75.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
+23.2%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
5active listings
Recent sold avg
$43.96mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$54.16cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$32.28
Median
$43.82
Mean
$42.66
Max
$51.98

Showing 24 of 25 sales · 1 outlier trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps47.5350%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices52.8425%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection49.8325%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)5.0720%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$54.16Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8366d agoJan 1View
$57.65PWCCNear Mint7272d agoJan 1View
$58.48Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9364d agoJan 1View
$61.99PWCCNear Mint8656d agoJan 1View
$65.02TCGPlayerNear Mint6162d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$60.40Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint56d ago
$50.65eBayNear Mint59d ago
$51.98Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint62d ago
$46.46TCGPlayerNear Mint65d ago
$47.74Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint66d ago
$43.03eBayNear Mint68d ago
$44.81eBayNear Mint73d ago
$40.98TCGPlayerNear Mint76d ago
$47.41eBayNear Mint77d ago
$43.16eBayNear Mint77d ago
$43.93MercariNear Mint78d ago
$37.63MercariNear Mint82d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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