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Groudon — Prismatic Evolutions — Rare

Groudon

PSA 9.5Simulated

Groudon · Prismatic Evolutions · Rare · 49

Character: Groudon

high confidencebearish2230d ▼13.6%
Estimated Fair Value
$25.41
Lowest listing $22.1113.0% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$22.04
Base Case
$25.41
Bull Case
$28.68

Price History

Dec 8Range $45.33 – $98.98Jun 5

Opportunity Score

48
  • 13% below fair value+15 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Sales accelerating+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Population growth slowing+3 pts
  • Strong demand (8 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish22

Groudon (PSA 9.5) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-13.6%). Estimated fair value is $25 against a lowest active listing of $22. Valuation confidence is high based on 11-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-13.6% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
11
Sales / Month
8.0
Velocity Score
40/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+15.1%
Total Graded
7,566
Gem Mint
2,994
Population Growth
+3.1%
Slowing

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-87.0%
Grading not economical
steady population

Population growing 1.7%/mo — steady supply across 6805 graded.

6,805 graded · 47% gem · +1.7%/mo

Raw cost
$22.11
All-in cost
$51.11+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$25.41
Expected proceeds
$6.6330% gem → $7.62 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$44.48
Breakeven graded value
$196value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
2.2dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
21.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-4.0%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
22active listings
Recent sold avg
$82.75mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$79.47cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$73.52
Median
$80.16
Mean
$80.22
Max
$89.20

Showing 11 of 12 sales · 1 outlier trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps25.5650%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices25.0325%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection24.0725%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-1.5750%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)3.0120%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$79.47Facebook MarketplaceGraded7359d agoJan 1View
$79.57PWCCGraded7873d agoJan 1View
$79.62Facebook MarketplaceGraded6369d agoJan 1View
$79.67TCGPlayerGraded8563d agoJan 1View
$82.73PWCCGraded8667d agoJan 1View
$83.44eBayGraded6055d agoJan 1View
$84.16eBayGraded6760d agoJan 1View
$84.36PWCCGraded7765d agoJan 1View
$84.95MercariGraded7973d agoJun 8View
$85.12Facebook MarketplaceGraded8955d agoJan 1View
$86.39Facebook MarketplaceGraded7270d agoJan 1View
$87.91PWCCGraded9063d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$89.84MercariGraded70d ago
$89.20eBayGraded70d ago
$83.92Facebook MarketplaceGraded72d ago
$82.14PWCCGraded76d ago
$73.52Facebook MarketplaceGraded82d ago
$77.86MercariGraded82d ago
$81.92PWCCGraded97d ago
$81.84eBayGraded103d ago
$78.36TCGPlayerGraded105d ago
$75.34PWCCGraded107d ago
$78.18PWCCGraded109d ago
$80.16Facebook MarketplaceGraded111d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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