Greninja Ultra Rare
SimulatedGreninja Ultra Rare · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Ultra Rare · 195/207
Character: Greninja
Price History
Opportunity Score
52- 17% below fair value+20 pts
- Sales accelerating+9 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Strong demand (11 sales/mo)+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish36Greninja Ultra Rare is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-10.3%). Estimated fair value is $160 against a lowest active listing of $133. Valuation confidence is high based on 14-plus recent comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-10.3% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 158.22 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 154.21 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 141.26 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 4.33 | 20% |
Active Listings
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $163 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 21h ago |
| $174 | eBay | Near Mint | 1d ago |
| $194 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 3d ago |
| $197 | Mercari | Near Mint | 4d ago |
| $181 | PWCC | Near Mint | 7d ago |
| $164 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 10d ago |
| $185 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 11d ago |
| $196 | eBay | Near Mint | 13d ago |
| $184 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 13d ago |
| $162 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 15d ago |
| $177 | eBay | Near Mint | 15d ago |
| $182 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 23d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charizard Secret RareScarlet & Violet 151BGS 9.5Simulated
| $781 | $743 | 4.8% | 31.3% | 14 | 48 |
Umbreon PromoScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
| $310 | $281 | 9.4% | 9.6% | 23 | 41 |
Umbreon V (Full Art)Scarlet & Violet 151BGS 9.5Simulated
| $470 | $429 | 8.6% | 8.8% | 21 | 34 |
Umbreon ex (Illustration Rare)Scarlet & Violet 151Simulated
| $279 | $274 | 1.8% | 16.0% | 9 | 31 |
Pikachu (Illustrator-style)Scarlet & Violet 151PSA 10Simulated
| $610 | $489 | 19.8% | 12.9% | 12 | 50 |
Umbreon PromoScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
| $294 | $245 | 16.7% | 12.9% | 22 | 42 |