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Cryogonal — Evolving Skies — Common

Cryogonal

Simulated

Cryogonal · Evolving Skies · Common · 43

Character: Cryogonal

high confidencebullish7230d 5.6%
Estimated Fair Value
$45.89
Lowest listing $40.8610.9% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$39.68
Base Case
$45.89
Bull Case
$52.03

Price History

Dec 8Range $36.15 – $75.29Jun 5

Opportunity Score

44
  • 11% below fair value+13 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Sales accelerating+6 pts
  • Strong demand (12 sales/mo)+4 pts
  • Price up 6% over 30 days+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish72

Cryogonal is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+5.6%). Estimated fair value is $46 against a lowest active listing of $41. Valuation confidence is high based on 14-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+5.6% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
14
Sales / Month
12.5
Velocity Score
63/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+14.4%
Confidence
98/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-38.9%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$40.86
All-in cost
$69.86+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$163
Expected proceeds
$42.6630% gem → $49.03 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$27.20
Breakeven graded value
$268value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
4.5dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
41.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-11.4%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
13active listings
Recent sold avg
$58.51mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$51.84cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$51.58
Median
$63.15
Mean
$63.36
Max
$77.59

Showing 19 of 19 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps43.4250%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices47.3425%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection44.2325%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)2.8820%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$51.84PWCCNear Mint9566d agoJan 1View
$53.89TCGPlayerNear Mint9461d agoJan 1View
$53.90TCGPlayerNear Mint8267d agoJan 1View
$54.00Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9765d agoJan 1View
$55.54eBayNear Mint6967d agoJan 1View
$58.23eBayNear Mint7661d agoJun 8View
$58.58Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6269d agoJan 1View
$60.32Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9068d agoJan 1View
$61.47Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9066d agoJun 6View
$62.05eBayNear Mint9057d agoJun 7View
$62.54TCGPlayerNear Mint6466d agoJan 1View
$63.31MercariNear Mint8271d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$53.60PWCCNear Mint57d ago
$51.58eBayNear Mint58d ago
$60.67MercariNear Mint64d ago
$65.01eBayNear Mint64d ago
$56.92PWCCNear Mint70d ago
$59.99eBayNear Mint73d ago
$55.50MercariNear Mint82d ago
$63.15eBayNear Mint83d ago
$60.15TCGPlayerNear Mint88d ago
$52.67MercariNear Mint91d ago
$65.38TCGPlayerNear Mint95d ago
$59.07eBayNear Mint95d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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