Lugia VMAX (Alt Art)
BGS 9.5SimulatedLugia VMAX (Alt Art) · Neo Genesis · Alt Art · 31/111
Character: Lugia
Price History
Opportunity Score
45- 11% below fair value+13 pts
- Reputable seller+8 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- Sales accelerating+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Strong demand (16 sales/mo)+5 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish38Lugia VMAX (Alt Art) (BGS 9.5) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-8.0%). Estimated fair value is $1586 against a lowest active listing of $1404. Valuation confidence is high based on 12-plus recent comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-8.0% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and rising graded population (5.9%/mo).
Risk Indicators
- Rising graded population may pressure prices
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 1584.12 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 1600.7 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 1555.52 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -2.93 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 3.3 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1,350 | eBay | Graded | 84 | 7d ago | Jun 4 | View |
| $1,353 | Mercari | Graded | 97 | 16d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,381 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 68 | 6d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,397 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 98 | 20d ago | Jun 1 | View |
| $1,454 | eBay | Graded | 95 | 14d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,466 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 63 | 20d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,487 | eBay | Graded | 65 | 16d ago | Jun 3 | View |
| $1,520 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 80 | 12d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,524 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 61 | 5d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,525 | PWCC | Graded | 69 | 21d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,564 | Mercari | Graded | 70 | 15d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,578 | eBay | Graded | 96 | 3d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,626 | eBay | Graded | 13h ago |
| $1,620 | Mercari | Graded | 3d ago |
| $1,513 | PWCC | Graded | 3d ago |
| $1,533 | eBay | Graded | 3d ago |
| $1,637 | PWCC | Graded | 7d ago |
| $1,784 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 8d ago |
| $1,612 | PWCC | Graded | 8d ago |
| $1,670 | Mercari | Graded | 9d ago |
| $1,629 | eBay | Graded | 10d ago |
| $1,379 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 11d ago |
| $1,530 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 13d ago |
| $1,564 | eBay | Graded | 17d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lugia Secret RareCrown ZenithSimulated
| $418 | $362 | 13.5% | 3.4% | 23 | 35 |
Lugia Ultra RareEX Ruby & SapphireSimulated
| $295 | $258 | 12.6% | 0.0% | 17 | 35 |
Lugia Holo RareBase SetSimulated
| $443 | $363 | 18.0% | 1.5% | 17 | 49 |
Lugia (Neo Genesis)Neo GenesisPSA 9Simulated
| $1,259 | $988 | 21.5% | 33.1% | 15 | 49 |
Lugia Holo RareEvolving SkiesPSA 9.5Simulated
| $180 | $179 | 0.7% | 10.9% | 5 | 33 |
Umbreon VMAX (Alt Art)Neo GenesisSimulated
| $1,515 | $1,434 | 5.3% | 17.9% | 15 | 39 |