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Hearthflame Mask Ogerpon ex — Prismatic Evolutions — Double Rare

Hearthflame Mask Ogerpon ex

Simulated

Hearthflame Mask Ogerpon ex · Prismatic Evolutions · Double Rare · 17

Character: Hearthflame

high confidencebullish8730d ▲12.9%
Estimated Fair Value
$22.91
Lowest listing $22.671.0% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$18.70
Base Case
$22.91
Bull Case
$27.21

Price History

Dec 8Range $43.60 – $75.34Jun 5

Opportunity Score

36
  • Low active inventory+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • Price up 13% over 30 days+5 pts
  • Strong demand (12 sales/mo)+4 pts
  • 1% below fair value+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish87

Hearthflame Mask Ogerpon ex is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+12.9%). Estimated fair value is $23 against a lowest active listing of $23. Valuation confidence is high based on 2-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+12.9% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
Active Listings
2
Sales / Month
12.0
Velocity Score
60/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
-1.7%
Confidence
78/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-54.2%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$22.67
All-in cost
$51.67+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$90.68
Expected proceeds
$23.6730% gem → $27.20 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$28.00
Breakeven graded value
$198value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.8dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
47.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-10.7%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
18active listings
Recent sold avg
$56.40mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$50.38cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$51.35
Median
$57.18
Mean
$58.86
Max
$71.35

Showing 26 of 26 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps21.9950%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices24.6525%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection23.3125%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-0.3420%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$50.38TCGPlayerNear Mint7674d agoJan 1View
$50.38MercariNear Mint7572d agoJun 9View
$50.79PWCCNear Mint6368d agoJun 6View
$53.18PWCCNear Mint10059d agoJan 1View
$53.22Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7273d agoJun 10View
$54.98eBayNear Mint7572d agoJan 1View
$55.35TCGPlayerNear Mint7974d agoJan 1View
$55.51eBayNear Mint7260d agoJun 6View
$57.19MercariNear Mint6855d agoJan 1View
$57.94Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9669d agoJan 1View
$58.46TCGPlayerNear Mint7674d agoJun 7View
$61.14MercariNear Mint7856d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$51.59Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint56d ago
$60.61MercariNear Mint57d ago
$54.07eBayNear Mint61d ago
$54.10Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint61d ago
$52.03Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint64d ago
$56.93MercariNear Mint64d ago
$53.59eBayNear Mint70d ago
$51.35MercariNear Mint73d ago
$60.90MercariNear Mint74d ago
$51.76TCGPlayerNear Mint76d ago
$54.12MercariNear Mint81d ago
$53.60MercariNear Mint81d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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