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Spearow — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Common

Spearow

Simulated

Spearow · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Common · 21

Character: Spearow

high confidencebearish2330d ▼23.0%
Estimated Fair Value
$25.98
Lowest listing $21.8116.1% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$21.64
Base Case
$25.98
Bull Case
$30.03

Price History

Dec 8Range $48.96 – $92.53Jun 5

Opportunity Score

40
  • 16% below fair value+19 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • Strong demand (10 sales/mo)+3 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish23

Spearow is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-23.0%). Estimated fair value is $26 against a lowest active listing of $22. Valuation confidence is high based on 9-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-23.0% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
9
Sales / Month
10.5
Velocity Score
53/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
-7.6%
Confidence
94/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-55.2%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$21.81
All-in cost
$50.81+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$87.24
Expected proceeds
$22.7730% gem → $26.17 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$28.04
Breakeven graded value
$195value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
3.1dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
44.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-11.3%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
9active listings
Recent sold avg
$54.03mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$47.95cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$45.19
Median
$58.13
Mean
$56.74
Max
$65.78

Showing 12 of 12 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps28.1650%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices24.4125%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection24.825%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-1.5320%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$47.95PWCCNear Mint8766d agoJan 1View
$52.05TCGPlayerNear Mint6570d agoJan 1View
$52.91TCGPlayerNear Mint9173d agoJun 10View
$53.01eBayNear Mint7669d agoJun 6View
$55.85eBayNear Mint7358d agoJan 1View
$58.48MercariNear Mint6266d agoJan 1View
$59.92Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6668d agoJan 1View
$59.92PWCCNear Mint7757d agoJan 1View
$60.12MercariNear Mint6560d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$47.01Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint56d ago
$45.19PWCCNear Mint56d ago
$51.39TCGPlayerNear Mint67d ago
$61.91MercariNear Mint73d ago
$58.46TCGPlayerNear Mint73d ago
$57.80MercariNear Mint73d ago
$56.45TCGPlayerNear Mint85d ago
$58.90MercariNear Mint93d ago
$53.33eBayNear Mint99d ago
$59.85eBayNear Mint100d ago
$65.78MercariNear Mint105d ago
$64.76Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint106d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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