Kakuna
SimulatedKakuna · XY Evolutions · Uncommon · 6
Character: Kakuna
Price History
Opportunity Score
38- 13% below fair value+16 pts
- Reputable seller+8 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Price up 11% over 30 days+5 pts
- High valuation confidence+4 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish77Kakuna is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+11.4%). Estimated fair value is $32 against a lowest active listing of $28. Valuation confidence is medium based on 13-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+11.4% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
No population data reported for this asset.
- Raw cost
- $27.62
- All-in cost
- $56.62+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $110
- Expected proceeds
- $28.8430% gem → $33.14 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$27.78
- Breakeven graded value
- $217value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 7.0dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 63.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -10.6%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 3active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $89.73mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $80.23cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $75.13
- Median
- $86.39
- Mean
- $84.99
- Max
- $93.57
Showing 14 of 14 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 31.62 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 32.19 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 32.22 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | -0.09 | 20% |
Active Listings
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $86.71 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 56d ago |
| $87.70 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 67d ago |
| $88.75 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 71d ago |
| $91.93 | eBay | Near Mint | 71d ago |
| $93.57 | PWCC | Near Mint | 81d ago |
| $86.27 | eBay | Near Mint | 92d ago |
| $80.37 | Mercari | Near Mint | 93d ago |
| $75.13 | eBay | Near Mint | 95d ago |
| $80.37 | Mercari | Near Mint | 96d ago |
| $76.44 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 101d ago |
| $86.50 | eBay | Near Mint | 103d ago |
| $84.28 | eBay | Near Mint | 106d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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