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Psyduck — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Common

Psyduck

Simulated

Psyduck · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Common · 54

Character: Psyduck

high confidencebearish2430d ▼19.4%
Estimated Fair Value
$51.22
Lowest listing $42.7216.6% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$42.97
Base Case
$51.22
Bull Case
$59.09

Price History

Dec 8Range $58.88 – $81.87Jun 5

Opportunity Score

41
  • 17% below fair value+19 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts
  • Strong demand (12 sales/mo)+4 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish24

Psyduck is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-19.4%). Estimated fair value is $51 against a lowest active listing of $43. Valuation confidence is high based on 22-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-19.4% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
22
Sales / Month
11.5
Velocity Score
57/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
-8.0%
Confidence
96/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-37.8%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$42.72
All-in cost
$71.72+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$171
Expected proceeds
$44.6030% gem → $51.26 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$27.12
Breakeven graded value
$275value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.3dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
54.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-12.8%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
16active listings
Recent sold avg
$67.55mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$58.90cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$57.13
Median
$69.68
Mean
$70.40
Max
$84.74

Showing 33 of 33 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps54.4450%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices49.8425%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection49.4925%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-1.620%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$58.90Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7964d agoJan 1View
$59.04eBayNear Mint9356d agoJan 1View
$59.04Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9367d agoJan 1View
$62.77TCGPlayerNear Mint8056d agoJun 7View
$63.79PWCCNear Mint7360d agoJun 8View
$64.67Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7375d agoJan 1View
$66.41eBayNear Mint9558d agoJan 1View
$67.05MercariNear Mint8468d agoJan 1View
$67.25TCGPlayerNear Mint9259d agoJan 1View
$70.36Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6570d agoJun 6View
$70.74PWCCNear Mint9673d agoJan 1View
$71.52TCGPlayerNear Mint8265d agoJun 8View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$68.25MercariNear Mint54d ago
$61.62Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint55d ago
$64.40MercariNear Mint55d ago
$65.11Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint59d ago
$57.46Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint59d ago
$57.13MercariNear Mint60d ago
$64.98eBayNear Mint61d ago
$65.04Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint68d ago
$64.11Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint70d ago
$74.15Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint76d ago
$69.00MercariNear Mint77d ago
$72.16TCGPlayerNear Mint77d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Related Assets

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
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  • Low active inventory+9 pts
  • Population growth slowing+7 pts
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  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
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  • Reputable seller+7 pts
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Blastoise ex — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Double Rare
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  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
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Charmeleon — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Uncommon
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  • Reputable seller+7 pts
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