Quagsire
CGC 10SimulatedQuagsire · Neo Genesis · Uncommon · 45
Character: Quagsire
Price History
Opportunity Score
63- 20% below fair value+23 pts
- Sales accelerating+8 pts
- Price up 19% over 30 days+8 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Strong demand (12 sales/mo)+4 pts
- Population growth slowing+1 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish89Quagsire (CGC 10) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+19.1%). Estimated fair value is $178 against a lowest active listing of $143. Valuation confidence is high based on 23-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+19.1% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growth slowing to 0.2%/mo — supply tightening across 7618 graded.
7,618 graded · 27% gem · +0.2%/mo
- Raw cost
- $143
- All-in cost
- $172+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $178
- Expected proceeds
- $46.5830% gem → $53.54 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$125.82
- Breakeven graded value
- $661value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.6dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 53.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -10.7%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 14active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $495mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $443cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $331
- Median
- $480
- Mean
- $473
- Max
- $581
Showing 20 of 20 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 174.68 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 167.47 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 185.06 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -2.08 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 3.86 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $443 | Mercari | Graded | 84 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $469 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 75 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $471 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 79 | 63d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $488 | eBay | Graded | 66 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $494 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 63 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $503 | Mercari | Graded | 94 | 71d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $518 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 89 | 63d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $549 | eBay | Graded | 65 | 61d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $558 | eBay | Graded | 90 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $565 | eBay | Graded | 76 | 61d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $572 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 100 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $581 | eBay | Graded | 72 | 70d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $546 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 56d ago |
| $467 | PWCC | Graded | 59d ago |
| $509 | PWCC | Graded | 60d ago |
| $573 | PWCC | Graded | 61d ago |
| $564 | PWCC | Graded | 63d ago |
| $580 | eBay | Graded | 63d ago |
| $581 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 66d ago |
| $518 | eBay | Graded | 67d ago |
| $537 | Mercari | Graded | 67d ago |
| $492 | PWCC | Graded | 72d ago |
| $450 | Mercari | Graded | 74d ago |
| $493 | Mercari | Graded | 77d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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