PokéAlpha
Live data not configuredNumbers are backed by a real but dated snapshot. Enable real marketplace listings for live intelligence.How to enable
Back to dashboard
Nidoran ♂ — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Common

Nidoran ♂

Simulated

Nidoran ♂ · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Common · 32

Character: Nidoran

high confidenceneutral5430d 1.1%
Estimated Fair Value
$31.86
Lowest listing $27.8712.5% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$27.59
Base Case
$31.86
Bull Case
$36.07

Price History

Dec 8Range $31.11 – $61.28Jun 5

Opportunity Score

49
  • 13% below fair value+15 pts
  • Sales accelerating+10 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Low active inventory+3 pts
  • Strong demand (9 sales/mo)+3 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral54

Nidoran ♂ is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-1.1%). Estimated fair value is $32 against a lowest active listing of $28. Valuation confidence is high based on 7-plus modeled comparable sales.

Neutral: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
7
Sales / Month
9.0
Velocity Score
45/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+23.7%
Confidence
92/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-48.8%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$27.87
All-in cost
$56.87+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$111
Expected proceeds
$29.1030% gem → $33.44 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$27.77
Breakeven graded value
$218value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
2.2dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
39.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-13.9%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
19active listings
Recent sold avg
$55.09mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$47.42cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$43.43
Median
$53.82
Mean
$53.42
Max
$59.89

Showing 21 of 21 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps30.3750%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices31.825%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection29.1525%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)4.7320%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$47.42eBayNear Mint7374d agoJan 1View
$48.24eBayNear Mint7873d agoJan 1View
$48.66PWCCNear Mint6368d agoJan 1View
$50.86eBayNear Mint8659d agoJan 1View
$52.01Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9972d agoJan 1View
$52.87Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8463d agoJan 1View
$53.15TCGPlayerNear Mint8969d agoJan 1View
$54.38PWCCNear Mint6559d agoJan 1View
$55.08TCGPlayerNear Mint8464d agoJan 1View
$55.67TCGPlayerNear Mint7265d agoJan 1View
$56.20eBayNear Mint8455d agoJan 1View
$58.04MercariNear Mint6373d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$59.89TCGPlayerNear Mint57d ago
$55.43Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint62d ago
$57.71MercariNear Mint62d ago
$52.61eBayNear Mint63d ago
$47.17Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint65d ago
$52.37eBayNear Mint66d ago
$55.08Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint69d ago
$54.72eBayNear Mint77d ago
$51.60Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint78d ago
$58.27MercariNear Mint86d ago
$57.53Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint90d ago
$58.70Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint90d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Related Assets

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
Pikachu (Illustrator-style) — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Special Illustration Rare
Pikachu (Illustrator-style)Scarlet & Violet 151PSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $97.89 · sales-derived, ungradedView $82.96 · TCGPlayer
  • Low active inventory+9 pts
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • 6% below fair value+7 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$504$4726.3%9.0%144
Pikachu — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Common
PikachuScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
  • 16% below fair value+19 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$2,878$2,40716.4%11.5%1642
Scarlet & Violet 151 Booster Box — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Sealed
Scarlet & Violet 151 Booster BoxScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
  • 18% below fair value+21 pts
  • Sales accelerating+11 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$3,509$2,89117.6%6.3%2055
Blastoise ex — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Double Rare
Blastoise exScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • 4% below fair value+5 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$508$4864.2%21.1%632
Blastoise ex — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Double Rare
Blastoise exScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
  • 15% below fair value+17 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$451$38314.9%4.0%1643
Charmeleon — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Uncommon
CharmeleonScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
  • 14% below fair value+17 pts
  • Sales accelerating+9 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$116$99.2814.4%5.9%1946