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Flareon VMAX — Evolving Skies — Rare Holo VMAX

Flareon VMAX

Simulated

Flareon VMAX · Evolving Skies · Rare Holo VMAX · 18

Character: Flareon

high confidencebullish6930d 6.1%
Estimated Fair Value
$20.43
Lowest listing $20.111.6% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$17.69
Base Case
$20.43
Bull Case
$23.18

Price History

Dec 8Range $33.32 – $97.97Jun 5

Opportunity Score

37
  • Low active inventory+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • Sales accelerating+4 pts
  • Price up 6% over 30 days+2 pts
  • Strong demand (8 sales/mo)+2 pts
  • 2% below fair value+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish69

Flareon VMAX is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+6.1%). Estimated fair value is $20 against a lowest active listing of $20. Valuation confidence is high based on 2-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+6.1% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
Active Listings
2
Sales / Month
7.5
Velocity Score
38/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+9.9%
Confidence
82/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-57.3%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$20.11
All-in cost
$49.11+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$80.44
Expected proceeds
$20.9930% gem → $24.13 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$28.12
Breakeven graded value
$188value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
0.8dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
61.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
+3.4%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
15active listings
Recent sold avg
$84.94mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$87.84cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$34.68
Median
$75.46
Mean
$70.99
Max
$101

Showing 36 of 36 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps19.8450%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices20.5525%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection19.8925%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)1.9820%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$87.84PWCCNear Mint9475d agoJan 1View
$88.60PWCCNear Mint6768d agoJan 1View
$90.91MercariNear Mint8072d agoJan 1View
$99.81PWCCNear Mint8760d agoJan 1View
$102MercariNear Mint7357d agoJan 1View
$102MercariNear Mint9262d agoJan 1View
$102PWCCNear Mint7556d agoJan 1View
$103Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8367d agoJan 1View
$105MercariNear Mint9455d agoJan 1View
$107PWCCNear Mint6671d agoJan 1View
$109Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9865d agoJun 6View
$109TCGPlayerNear Mint8060d agoJun 8View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$92.12PWCCNear Mint55d ago
$100MercariNear Mint56d ago
$97.17eBayNear Mint56d ago
$96.68TCGPlayerNear Mint57d ago
$87.43eBayNear Mint58d ago
$98.37Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint59d ago
$89.27TCGPlayerNear Mint60d ago
$99.44PWCCNear Mint61d ago
$101PWCCNear Mint62d ago
$97.75PWCCNear Mint63d ago
$87.39Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint63d ago
$95.72MercariNear Mint65d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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