Charizard Ultra Rare
SimulatedCharizard Ultra Rare · Hidden Fates · Ultra Rare · 125/163
Character: Charizard
Price History
Opportunity Score
43- 16% below fair value+19 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+5 pts
- Sales accelerating+5 pts
- Strong demand (5 sales/mo)+2 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish19Charizard Ultra Rare is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-16.7%). Estimated fair value is $451 against a lowest active listing of $378. Valuation confidence is high based on 15-plus recent comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-16.7% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 469.35 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 435.06 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 382.57 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 2.62 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $473 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 86 | 21d ago | Jun 3 | View |
| $491 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 91 | 15d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $491 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 98 | 11d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $492 | eBay | Near Mint | 88 | 15d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $510 | Mercari | Near Mint | 91 | 19d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $510 | PWCC | Near Mint | 83 | 12d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $536 | Mercari | Near Mint | 73 | 10d ago | Jun 2 | View |
| $546 | PWCC | Near Mint | 84 | 9d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $546 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 67 | 10d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $557 | PWCC | Near Mint | 84 | 14d ago | Jun 3 | View |
| $571 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 87 | 13d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $585 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 83 | 9d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $526 | PWCC | Near Mint | 2d ago |
| $486 | PWCC | Near Mint | 6d ago |
| $512 | eBay | Near Mint | 6d ago |
| $486 | PWCC | Near Mint | 12d ago |
| $456 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 13d ago |
| $453 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 14d ago |
| $450 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 16d ago |
| $420 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 17d ago |
| $397 | eBay | Near Mint | 25d ago |
| $375 | Mercari | Near Mint | 25d ago |
| $314 | Mercari | Near Mint | 32d ago |
| $328 | PWCC | Near Mint | 32d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charizard GX (Shiny)Hidden FatesPSA 10Simulated
| $758 | $695 | 8.4% | 2.7% | 9 | 36 |
Base ZardBase SetPSA 10Simulated
| $8,111 | $6,874 | 15.3% | 16.7% | 5 | 50 |
Charizard Holo RareEvolving SkiesSimulated
| $205 | $170 | 17.1% | 20.2% | 23 | 44 |
Charizard ex (Illustration Rare)Evolving SkiesBGS 9.5Simulated
| $530 | $497 | 6.4% | 5.0% | 21 | 30 |
Charizard ex (Illustration Rare)XY EvolutionsSimulated
| $1,018 | $847 | 16.8% | 3.8% | 6 | 56 |
Charizard Secret RareScarlet & Violet 151BGS 9.5Simulated
| $710 | $719 | -1.2% | 2.4% | 3 | 46 |