Magmar
BGS 9SimulatedMagmar · Neo Genesis · Uncommon · 40
Character: Magmar
Price History
Opportunity Score
45- Price up 26% over 30 days+8 pts
- Population growth slowing+7 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- Strong demand (17 sales/mo)+5 pts
- 4% below fair value+5 pts
- Sales accelerating+2 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish97Magmar (BGS 9) is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+25.6%). Estimated fair value is $112 against a lowest active listing of $107. Valuation confidence is high based on 9-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+25.6% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growth slowing to -0.3%/mo — supply tightening across 2474 graded.
2,474 graded · 21% gem · -0.3%/mo
- Raw cost
- $107
- All-in cost
- $136+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $112
- Expected proceeds
- $29.2830% gem → $33.66 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$107.15
- Breakeven graded value
- $523value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 2.7dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 86.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -9.2%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 2active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $214mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $194cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $199
- Median
- $217
- Mean
- $217
- Max
- $231
Showing 12 of 14 sales · 2 outliers trimmed
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 103.43 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 120.78 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 118.02 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -0.45 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 1.15 | 20% |
Active Listings
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $199 | Mercari | Graded | 56d ago |
| $197 | Mercari | Graded | 60d ago |
| $228 | PWCC | Graded | 67d ago |
| $231 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 70d ago |
| $219 | Mercari | Graded | 75d ago |
| $213 | Mercari | Graded | 76d ago |
| $223 | PWCC | Graded | 79d ago |
| $211 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 80d ago |
| $216 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 82d ago |
| $220 | PWCC | Graded | 84d ago |
| $197 | eBay | Graded | 86d ago |
| $212 | eBay | Graded | 87d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lugia (Neo Genesis)Neo GenesisPSA 9Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $511 · sales-derived, ungradedView $300 · TCGPlayer
| $1,640 | $1,056 | 35.6% | 5.6% | 1 | 75 |
 SteelixNeo GenesisSimulated
| $235 | $214 | 8.9% | 6.9% | 17 | 41 |
 QuilavaNeo GenesisPSA 9Simulated
| $288 | $256 | 11.3% | 6.9% | 11 | 43 |
 HeracrossNeo GenesisBGS 9.5Simulated
| $208 | $192 | 7.9% | 9.4% | 10 | 40 |
 SeadraNeo GenesisCGC 9Simulated
| $239 | $200 | 16.1% | 25.0% | 17 | 52 |
 FlaaffyNeo GenesisSimulated
| $145 | $135 | 7.0% | 32.2% | 22 | 38 |