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Ninetales — Base Set — Rare Holo

Ninetales

CGC 9.5Simulated

Ninetales · Base Set · Rare Holo · 12

Character: Ninetales

high confidencebullish8630d 44.0%
Estimated Fair Value
$191
Lowest listing $1881.6% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$164
Base Case
$191
Bull Case
$221

Price History

Dec 8Range $206 – $396Jun 5

Opportunity Score

39
  • Price up 44% over 30 days+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Population growth slowing+5 pts
  • High valuation confidence+5 pts
  • Sales accelerating+5 pts
  • 2% below fair value+2 pts
  • Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish86

Ninetales (CGC 9.5) is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+44.0%). Estimated fair value is $191 against a lowest active listing of $188. Valuation confidence is high based on 10-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+44.0% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
10
Sales / Month
4.5
Velocity Score
23/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+11.3%
Total Graded
6,872
Gem Mint
2,425
Population Growth
+1.8%
Slowing

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-77.0%
Grading not economical
accelerating population

Population growing 5.9%/mo — supply expanding quickly across 1127 graded.

1,127 graded · 31% gem · +5.9%/mo

Raw cost
$188
All-in cost
$217+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$191
Expected proceeds
$49.8530% gem → $57.30 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$167.11
Breakeven graded value
$831value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
2.2dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
33.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
+4.3%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
20active listings
Recent sold avg
$328mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$342cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$247
Median
$310
Mean
$319
Max
$367

Showing 12 of 12 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps157.5650%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices210.3125%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection228.5925%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-0.9150%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)2.2620%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$342Facebook MarketplaceGraded10075d agoJan 1View
$348MercariGraded9558d agoJan 1View
$352MercariGraded7461d agoJan 1View
$353PWCCGraded9857d agoJan 1View
$356PWCCGraded6666d agoJun 10View
$372TCGPlayerGraded7855d agoJan 1View
$385Facebook MarketplaceGraded6174d agoJun 8View
$397MercariGraded6955d agoJan 1View
$398eBayGraded8461d agoJan 1View
$401MercariGraded8668d agoJan 1View
$405Facebook MarketplaceGraded8562d agoJan 1View
$411MercariGraded7666d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$363PWCCGraded63d ago
$367MercariGraded67d ago
$342eBayGraded67d ago
$349TCGPlayerGraded68d ago
$366Facebook MarketplaceGraded70d ago
$292MercariGraded78d ago
$291PWCCGraded78d ago
$292PWCCGraded79d ago
$319TCGPlayerGraded83d ago
$293Facebook MarketplaceGraded87d ago
$302PWCCGraded101d ago
$247Facebook MarketplaceGraded109d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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