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Lugia VMAX (Alt Art) card artwork

Lugia VMAX (Alt Art)

Simulated

Lugia VMAX (Alt Art) · Jungle · Alt Art · 16/64

Character: Lugia

high confidencebearish3630d ▼9.8%
Estimated Fair Value
$1,821
Lowest listing $1,7275.2% below
Bear Case
$1,566
Base Case
$1,821
Bull Case
$2,071

Price History

Dec 2Range $961 – $1.8KMay 30

Opportunity Score

46
  • Sales accelerating+9 pts
  • Low active inventory+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • 5% below fair value+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • Strong demand (10 sales/mo)+3 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish36

Lugia VMAX (Alt Art) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-9.8%). Estimated fair value is $1821 against a lowest active listing of $1727. Valuation confidence is high based on 2-plus recent comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-9.8% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
Active Listings
2
Sales / Month
10.5
Velocity Score
53/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+23.5%
Confidence
82/100

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps1768.4750%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices1744.5925%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection1676.8525%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)4.6920%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$1,642Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8317d agoJun 1View
$1,725MercariNear Mint8311d agoJan 1View
$1,753TCGPlayerNear Mint9215d agoJan 1View
$1,765PWCCNear Mint712d agoJan 1View
$1,889PWCCNear Mint614d agoJan 1View
$1,950eBayNear Mint892d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$1,687TCGPlayerNear Mint7d ago
$1,608eBayNear Mint15d ago
$1,341TCGPlayerNear Mint20d ago
$1,404eBayNear Mint26d ago
$1,349MercariNear Mint30d ago
$1,167Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint33d ago
$1,231eBayNear Mint33d ago
$1,361Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint36d ago
$1,407PWCCNear Mint36d ago
$1,228Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint38d ago
$1,281Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint40d ago
$1,259MercariNear Mint41d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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  • Reputable seller+7 pts
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  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
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Lugia Holo RareBase SetSimulated
  • 21% below fair value+25 pts
  • Sales accelerating+10 pts
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  • Reputable seller+7 pts
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