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Dusclops — Prismatic Evolutions — Common

Dusclops

Simulated

Dusclops · Prismatic Evolutions · Common · 36

Character: Dusclops

high confidencebearish3930d 10.5%
Estimated Fair Value
$33.39
Lowest listing $26.7919.8% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$28.85
Base Case
$33.39
Bull Case
$37.92

Price History

Dec 8Range $52.79 – $82.00Jun 5

Opportunity Score

54
  • 20% below fair value+23 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (16 sales/mo)+5 pts
  • Sales accelerating+4 pts
  • Low active inventory+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish39

Dusclops is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-10.5%). Estimated fair value is $33 against a lowest active listing of $27. Valuation confidence is high based on 8-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-10.5% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
8
Sales / Month
16.0
Velocity Score
80/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+9.8%
Confidence
94/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-49.9%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$26.79
All-in cost
$55.79+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$107
Expected proceeds
$27.9730% gem → $32.15 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$27.82
Breakeven graded value
$214value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.4dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
53.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-10.9%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
15active listings
Recent sold avg
$74.02mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$65.96cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$62.25
Median
$71.44
Mean
$71.80
Max
$80.61

Showing 25 of 25 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps34.4850%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices30.5725%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection31.4425%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)1.9620%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$65.96MercariNear Mint8455d agoJan 1View
$66.25eBayNear Mint8856d agoJan 1View
$66.95MercariNear Mint8072d agoJan 1View
$68.05PWCCNear Mint7561d agoJan 1View
$68.94MercariNear Mint9672d agoJan 1View
$70.28PWCCNear Mint6072d agoJun 6View
$70.49Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7871d agoJan 1View
$74.50MercariNear Mint6164d agoJan 1View
$76.67MercariNear Mint7471d agoJun 9View
$79.43Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7163d agoJan 1View
$79.91TCGPlayerNear Mint9969d agoJan 1View
$80.15eBayNear Mint8173d agoJun 10View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$77.49PWCCNear Mint56d ago
$72.44MercariNear Mint61d ago
$70.80PWCCNear Mint63d ago
$68.67MercariNear Mint64d ago
$74.39eBayNear Mint68d ago
$70.30PWCCNear Mint68d ago
$67.18MercariNear Mint70d ago
$78.00TCGPlayerNear Mint71d ago
$75.58eBayNear Mint72d ago
$69.91eBayNear Mint74d ago
$80.61PWCCNear Mint76d ago
$71.44Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint76d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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