Cleffa
PSA 9.5SimulatedCleffa · Neo Genesis · Rare · 20
Character: Cleffa
Price History
Opportunity Score
49- 11% below fair value+13 pts
- Sales accelerating+9 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Strong demand (18 sales/mo)+5 pts
- Reputable seller+5 pts
- Population growth slowing+3 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral51Cleffa (PSA 9.5) is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-3.8%). Estimated fair value is $136 against a lowest active listing of $120. Valuation confidence is high based on 17-plus modeled comparable sales.
Neutral: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growing 3.8%/mo — steady supply across 1598 graded.
1,598 graded · 35% gem · +3.8%/mo
- Raw cost
- $120
- All-in cost
- $149+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $136
- Expected proceeds
- $35.4230% gem → $40.72 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$114.03
- Breakeven graded value
- $573value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.7dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 60.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -20.1%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 12active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $246mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $196cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $218
- Median
- $254
- Mean
- $252
- Max
- $290
Showing 32 of 33 sales · 1 outlier trimmed
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 131.12 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 134.1 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 130.58 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -1.59 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 4.69 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $196 | Mercari | Graded | 68 | 73d ago | Jun 9 | View |
| $197 | eBay | Graded | 86 | 63d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $199 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 74 | 64d ago | Jun 10 | View |
| $202 | eBay | Graded | 80 | 68d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $205 | PWCC | Graded | 66 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $210 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 98 | 74d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $232 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 87 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $236 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 61 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $238 | Mercari | Graded | 83 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $248 | eBay | Graded | 83 | 60d ago | Jun 6 | View |
| $256 | Mercari | Graded | 97 | 67d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $262 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 88 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $242 | PWCC | Graded | 56d ago |
| $241 | Mercari | Graded | 59d ago |
| $218 | PWCC | Graded | 59d ago |
| $261 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 64d ago |
| $234 | PWCC | Graded | 69d ago |
| $233 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 71d ago |
| $261 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 74d ago |
| $226 | PWCC | Graded | 75d ago |
| $248 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 75d ago |
| $259 | PWCC | Graded | 75d ago |
| $241 | eBay | Graded | 76d ago |
| $229 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 78d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lugia (Neo Genesis)Neo GenesisPSA 9Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $511 · sales-derived, ungradedView $300 · TCGPlayer
| $1,640 | $1,056 | 35.6% | 5.6% | 1 | 75 |
 SteelixNeo GenesisSimulated
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 QuilavaNeo GenesisPSA 9Simulated
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 HeracrossNeo GenesisBGS 9.5Simulated
| $208 | $192 | 7.9% | 9.4% | 10 | 40 |
 SeadraNeo GenesisCGC 9Simulated
| $239 | $200 | 16.1% | 25.0% | 17 | 52 |
 FlaaffyNeo GenesisSimulated
| $145 | $135 | 7.0% | 32.2% | 22 | 38 |