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Mankey — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Common

Mankey

BGS 9Simulated

Mankey · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Common · 56

Character: Mankey

medium confidencebearish3230d ▼8.0%
Estimated Fair Value
$17.41
Lowest listing $16.724.0% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$15.04
Base Case
$17.41
Bull Case
$19.72

Price History

Dec 8Range $42.92 – $126Jun 5

Opportunity Score

27
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts
  • 4% below fair value+5 pts
  • High valuation confidence+5 pts
  • Population growth slowing+4 pts
  • Sales accelerating+2 pts
  • Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish32

Mankey (BGS 9) is currently fairly valued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-8.0%). Estimated fair value is $17 against a lowest active listing of $17. Valuation confidence is medium based on 12-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-8.0% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
12
Sales / Month
3.5
Velocity Score
18/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+3.8%
Total Graded
2,076
Gem Mint
516
Population Growth
+2.3%
Slowing

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-90.1%
Grading not economical
slowing population

Population growth slowing to 1.3%/mo — supply tightening across 3285 graded.

3,285 graded · 41% gem · +1.3%/mo

Raw cost
$16.72
All-in cost
$45.72+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$17.41
Expected proceeds
$4.5430% gem → $5.22 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$41.18
Breakeven graded value
$175value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.4dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
46.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-21.9%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
21active listings
Recent sold avg
$99.46mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$77.72cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$88.67
Median
$103
Mean
$106
Max
$127

Showing 30 of 30 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps16.4950%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices19.8425%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection17.1125%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-1.1450%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)0.7720%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$77.72eBayGraded9857d agoJun 6View
$79.04eBayGraded8570d agoJan 1View
$82.85TCGPlayerGraded9663d agoJun 8View
$83.37TCGPlayerGraded9066d agoJan 1View
$87.09eBayGraded8074d agoJan 1View
$87.13eBayGraded7368d agoJan 1View
$87.37Facebook MarketplaceGraded7068d agoJan 1View
$87.59PWCCGraded9068d agoJan 1View
$87.96MercariGraded9371d agoJan 1View
$89.19MercariGraded6364d agoJan 1View
$90.72TCGPlayerGraded8268d agoJan 1View
$90.93eBayGraded9671d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$92.33MercariGraded55d ago
$88.67TCGPlayerGraded57d ago
$97.35PWCCGraded57d ago
$99.32PWCCGraded60d ago
$96.78Facebook MarketplaceGraded61d ago
$97.35eBayGraded62d ago
$92.58Facebook MarketplaceGraded69d ago
$98.64TCGPlayerGraded70d ago
$101Facebook MarketplaceGraded73d ago
$101TCGPlayerGraded74d ago
$92.20MercariGraded77d ago
$98.70Facebook MarketplaceGraded78d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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