Ninetales
BGS 9.5SimulatedNinetales · XY Evolutions · Rare Holo · 15
Character: Ninetales
Price History
Opportunity Score
24- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+5 pts
- High valuation confidence+5 pts
- Price up 8% over 30 days+3 pts
- 2% below fair value+2 pts
- Population growth slowing+2 pts
- Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish65Ninetales (BGS 9.5) is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+7.5%). Estimated fair value is $59 against a lowest active listing of $58. Valuation confidence is medium based on 14-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+7.5% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growth slowing to 1.1%/mo — supply tightening across 4072 graded.
4,072 graded · 24% gem · +1.1%/mo
- Raw cost
- $58.01
- All-in cost
- $87.01+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $59.23
- Expected proceeds
- $15.4630% gem → $17.77 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$71.55
- Breakeven graded value
- $333value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 9.0dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 15.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -16.1%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 22active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $105mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $88.26cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $99.86
- Median
- $109
- Mean
- $109
- Max
- $121
Showing 6 of 6 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 58.58 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 66.58 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 61.52 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -1.95 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | -1.47 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $88.26 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 86 | 67d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $89.35 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 79 | 69d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $91.09 | PWCC | Graded | 77 | 74d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $92.01 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 88 | 61d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $92.85 | Mercari | Graded | 88 | 64d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $95.94 | Mercari | Graded | 69 | 70d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $102 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 80 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $102 | Mercari | Graded | 77 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $102 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 65 | 70d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $104 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 64 | 60d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $105 | Mercari | Graded | 99 | 61d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $105 | PWCC | Graded | 85 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $103 | Mercari | Graded | 57d ago |
| $112 | PWCC | Graded | 66d ago |
| $99.86 | PWCC | Graded | 75d ago |
| $106 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 83d ago |
| $121 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 91d ago |
| $112 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 112d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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