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Alakazam — Base Set — Rare Holo

Alakazam

CGC 9.5Simulated

Alakazam · Base Set · Rare Holo · 1

Character: Alakazam

high confidencebullish9730d 18.9%
Estimated Fair Value
$83.96
Lowest listing $75.759.8% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$71.45
Base Case
$83.96
Bull Case
$97.26

Price History

Dec 8Range $243 – $354Jun 5

Opportunity Score

50
  • 10% below fair value+11 pts
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • Price up 19% over 30 days+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • Strong demand (16 sales/mo)+5 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish97

Alakazam (CGC 9.5) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+18.9%). Estimated fair value is $84 against a lowest active listing of $76. Valuation confidence is high based on 17-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+18.9% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
17
Sales / Month
15.5
Velocity Score
78/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+0.5%
Total Graded
6,984
Gem Mint
1,489
Population Growth
+0.1%
Stable supply

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-79.1%
Grading not economical
accelerating population

Population growing 5.1%/mo — supply expanding quickly across 5496 graded.

5,496 graded · 38% gem · +5.1%/mo

Raw cost
$75.75
All-in cost
$105+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$83.96
Expected proceeds
$21.9130% gem → $25.19 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$82.84
Breakeven graded value
$401value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
2.6dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
80.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-2.1%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
2active listings
Recent sold avg
$293mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$287cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$239
Median
$297
Mean
$289
Max
$320

Showing 13 of 13 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps79.1650%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices88.2825%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection89.125%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-0.0650%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)0.0920%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$287eBayGraded7570d agoJan 1View
$312MercariGraded8658d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$303PWCCGraded56d ago
$313PWCCGraded56d ago
$320PWCCGraded57d ago
$271eBayGraded64d ago
$286PWCCGraded65d ago
$256MercariGraded67d ago
$289Facebook MarketplaceGraded76d ago
$306eBayGraded87d ago
$275MercariGraded93d ago
$297MercariGraded93d ago
$239PWCCGraded99d ago
$305eBayGraded107d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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