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Pupitar — Prismatic Evolutions — Common

Pupitar

Simulated

Pupitar · Prismatic Evolutions · Common · 48

Character: Pupitar

high confidenceneutral5730d 3.0%
Estimated Fair Value
$22.49
Lowest listing $20.409.3% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$19.60
Base Case
$22.49
Bull Case
$25.35

Price History

Dec 8Range $48.96 – $85.05Jun 5

Opportunity Score

36
  • 9% below fair value+11 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (18 sales/mo)+5 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral57

Pupitar is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-3.0%). Estimated fair value is $22 against a lowest active listing of $20. Valuation confidence is high based on 13-plus modeled comparable sales.

Neutral: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
13
Sales / Month
17.5
Velocity Score
88/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
-4.8%
Confidence
98/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-56.9%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$20.40
All-in cost
$49.40+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$81.60
Expected proceeds
$21.3030% gem → $24.48 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$28.10
Breakeven graded value
$189value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.7dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
42.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-7.9%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
22active listings
Recent sold avg
$59.60mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$54.88cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$53.88
Median
$62.86
Mean
$62.27
Max
$70.58

Showing 29 of 29 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps22.950%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices22.8925%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection22.1525%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-0.9620%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$54.88MercariNear Mint7764d agoJun 9View
$54.90PWCCNear Mint8859d agoJun 6View
$55.10PWCCNear Mint6267d agoJan 1View
$56.94eBayNear Mint8765d agoJan 1View
$57.54MercariNear Mint6871d agoJan 1View
$57.56eBayNear Mint7958d agoJan 1View
$58.48MercariNear Mint7465d agoJun 7View
$59.91PWCCNear Mint8064d agoJan 1View
$62.13TCGPlayerNear Mint7075d agoJan 1View
$62.17TCGPlayerNear Mint6368d agoJan 1View
$64.70Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7062d agoJun 8View
$65.00MercariNear Mint9869d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$57.36Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint54d ago
$64.60Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint58d ago
$58.14Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint61d ago
$57.14eBayNear Mint61d ago
$55.17Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint62d ago
$57.32Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint62d ago
$63.60Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint67d ago
$58.50PWCCNear Mint69d ago
$62.90TCGPlayerNear Mint75d ago
$56.85TCGPlayerNear Mint75d ago
$63.99TCGPlayerNear Mint77d ago
$58.74Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint77d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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