Poliwhirl
SimulatedPoliwhirl · XY Evolutions · Uncommon · 24
Character: Poliwhirl
Price History
Opportunity Score
45- 12% below fair value+14 pts
- Price up 22% over 30 days+8 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+5 pts
- Sales accelerating+4 pts
- Strong demand (6 sales/mo)+2 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish90Poliwhirl is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+22.0%). Estimated fair value is $96 against a lowest active listing of $85. Valuation confidence is high based on 22-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+22.0% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
No population data reported for this asset.
- Raw cost
- $84.57
- All-in cost
- $114+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $338
- Expected proceeds
- $88.2930% gem → $101 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$25.28
- Breakeven graded value
- $435value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 2.5dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 50.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -11.9%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 11active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $87.33mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $76.96cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $69.23
- Median
- $85.88
- Mean
- $85.92
- Max
- $100
Showing 14 of 14 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 86.81 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 101.51 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 102.87 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 1.9 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $76.96 | eBay | Near Mint | 76 | 67d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $80.99 | Mercari | Near Mint | 83 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $88.09 | PWCC | Near Mint | 90 | 61d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $88.45 | eBay | Near Mint | 61 | 56d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $88.80 | PWCC | Near Mint | 76 | 75d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $89.92 | PWCC | Near Mint | 89 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $90.68 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 100 | 59d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $91.33 | eBay | Near Mint | 88 | 74d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $93.43 | Mercari | Near Mint | 65 | 70d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $95.65 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 82 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $99.56 | Mercari | Near Mint | 79 | 75d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $94.42 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 62d ago |
| $100 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 67d ago |
| $95.72 | Mercari | Near Mint | 68d ago |
| $92.43 | PWCC | Near Mint | 71d ago |
| $99.58 | Mercari | Near Mint | 73d ago |
| $85.30 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 76d ago |
| $81.83 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 77d ago |
| $86.45 | Mercari | Near Mint | 77d ago |
| $85.25 | eBay | Near Mint | 78d ago |
| $70.20 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 85d ago |
| $69.23 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 88d ago |
| $83.01 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 91d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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