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Poliwhirl — Base Set — Uncommon

Poliwhirl

Simulated

Poliwhirl · Base Set · Uncommon · 38

Character: Poliwhirl

high confidencebullish8130d 12.4%
Estimated Fair Value
$44.50
Lowest listing $41.397.0% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$37.57
Base Case
$44.50
Bull Case
$51.79

Price History

Dec 8Range $134 – $248Jun 5

Opportunity Score

32
  • 7% below fair value+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+5 pts
  • Price up 12% over 30 days+5 pts
  • Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish81

Poliwhirl is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+12.4%). Estimated fair value is $44 against a lowest active listing of $41. Valuation confidence is high based on 12-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+12.4% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
12
Sales / Month
4.5
Velocity Score
23/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
-6.9%
Confidence
72/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-38.6%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$41.39
All-in cost
$70.39+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$166
Expected proceeds
$43.2130% gem → $49.67 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$27.18
Breakeven graded value
$270value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
4.2dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
47.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
+12.2%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
8active listings
Recent sold avg
$164mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$184cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$145
Median
$171
Mean
$169
Max
$191

Showing 11 of 12 sales · 1 outlier trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps42.3750%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices47.4425%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection48.325%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-1.3820%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$184Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7663d agoJan 1View
$185Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9256d agoJan 1View
$185MercariNear Mint8972d agoJun 9View
$198MercariNear Mint8263d agoJan 1View
$200MercariNear Mint8256d agoJun 10View
$200TCGPlayerNear Mint9673d agoJan 1View
$211eBayNear Mint8257d agoJan 1View
$213PWCCNear Mint7370d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$177MercariNear Mint56d ago
$191PWCCNear Mint68d ago
$164TCGPlayerNear Mint71d ago
$176Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint73d ago
$145PWCCNear Mint84d ago
$134MercariNear Mint84d ago
$160TCGPlayerNear Mint89d ago
$171MercariNear Mint91d ago
$177MercariNear Mint99d ago
$160TCGPlayerNear Mint102d ago
$164MercariNear Mint107d ago
$174MercariNear Mint108d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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