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Dec 2Range $889 – $1.3KMay 30
Estimated Fair Value
$971
Lowest listing $8789.6% below
Bear Case
$813
Base Case
$971
Bull Case
$1,127
Price History
Opportunity Score
47- 10% below fair value+11 pts
- Population growth slowing+8 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- Strong demand (16 sales/mo)+5 pts
- Sales accelerating+5 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral53Pikachu Ultra Rare (BGS 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-4.2%). Estimated fair value is $971 against a lowest active listing of $878. Valuation confidence is high based on 13-plus recent comparable sales.
Neutral: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Active Listings
13
Sales / Month
16.5
Velocity Score
83/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+11.9%
Total Graded
3,679
Gem Mint
2,066
Population Growth
-0.2%
Stable supply
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 958.58 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 954.53 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 919.66 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | 0.09 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 2.38 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $990 | eBay | Graded | 75 | 21d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,003 | Mercari | Graded | 71 | 19d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,011 | Mercari | Graded | 97 | 8d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,015 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 83 | 5d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,030 | eBay | Graded | 61 | 7d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,053 | eBay | Graded | 93 | 11d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,098 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 81 | 2d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,104 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 69 | 11d ago | May 31 | View |
| $1,120 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 80 | 18d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,124 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 73 | 4d ago | Jun 1 | View |
| $1,156 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 74 | 7d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,157 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 92 | 17d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,065 | PWCC | Graded | 3d ago |
| $1,195 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 3d ago |
| $1,064 | eBay | Graded | 7d ago |
| $1,109 | eBay | Graded | 8d ago |
| $1,267 | Mercari | Graded | 10d ago |
| $1,134 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 11d ago |
| $1,201 | PWCC | Graded | 12d ago |
| $1,147 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 14d ago |
| $1,184 | PWCC | Graded | 16d ago |
| $1,214 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 17d ago |
| $1,321 | PWCC | Graded | 23d ago |
| $1,250 | Mercari | Graded | 25d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Base ZardBase SetPSA 10Simulated
| $7,466 | $7,039 | 5.7% | 10.3% | 8 | 37 |
Pikachu V (Full Art)Hidden FatesSimulated
| $238 | $203 | 14.5% | 12.2% | 18 | 55 |
Pikachu ex (Illustration Rare)HeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $497 | $430 | 13.5% | 2.1% | 18 | 37 |
Pikachu (Illustrator-style)Scarlet & Violet 151PSA 10Simulated
| $648 | $560 | 13.6% | 12.3% | 19 | 44 |
Rayquaza ex (Illustration Rare)Base SetSimulated
| $890 | $761 | 14.5% | 5.2% | 6 | 55 |
Pikachu VMAX (Alt Art)XY EvolutionsPSA 9.5Simulated
| $1,137 | $1,004 | 11.7% | 0.7% | 10 | 51 |