PokéAlpha
Live data not configuredNumbers are backed by a real but dated snapshot. Enable real marketplace listings for live intelligence.How to enable
Back to dashboard
Glaceon ex — Prismatic Evolutions — Double Rare

Glaceon ex

Simulated

Glaceon ex · Prismatic Evolutions · Double Rare · 26

Character: Glaceon

high confidencebearish3530d 13.0%
Estimated Fair Value
$46.77
Lowest listing $37.6819.4% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$40.55
Base Case
$46.77
Bull Case
$52.93

Price History

Dec 8Range $44.46 – $64.32Jun 5

Opportunity Score

56
  • 19% below fair value+23 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Sales accelerating+6 pts
  • Strong demand (18 sales/mo)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts
  • Low active inventory+4 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish35

Glaceon ex is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-13.0%). Estimated fair value is $47 against a lowest active listing of $38. Valuation confidence is high based on 6-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-13.0% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
6
Sales / Month
18.5
Velocity Score
93/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+14.1%
Confidence
90/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-41.0%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$37.68
All-in cost
$66.68+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$151
Expected proceeds
$39.3430% gem → $45.22 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$27.34
Breakeven graded value
$255value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.6dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
52.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
+17.0%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
11active listings
Recent sold avg
$50.65mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$59.26cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$45.12
Median
$51.25
Mean
$51.68
Max
$59.35

Showing 22 of 23 sales · 1 outlier trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps48.1750%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices39.7425%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection45.8825%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)2.8220%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$59.26MercariNear Mint7772d agoJan 1View
$59.39Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6063d agoJan 1View
$60.47eBayNear Mint7855d agoJan 1View
$60.72PWCCNear Mint9574d agoJan 1View
$63.64TCGPlayerNear Mint7456d agoJun 7View
$63.78eBayNear Mint7173d agoJan 1View
$67.92TCGPlayerNear Mint8067d agoJan 1View
$68.29PWCCNear Mint7957d agoJan 1View
$71.75MercariNear Mint8372d agoJun 8View
$71.95PWCCNear Mint8764d agoJun 10View
$73.99eBayNear Mint8860d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$58.89TCGPlayerNear Mint55d ago
$59.35Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint56d ago
$46.49eBayNear Mint67d ago
$49.70Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint74d ago
$50.52PWCCNear Mint75d ago
$45.12PWCCNear Mint76d ago
$47.44PWCCNear Mint77d ago
$47.31PWCCNear Mint78d ago
$51.15TCGPlayerNear Mint82d ago
$51.34TCGPlayerNear Mint85d ago
$46.90eBayNear Mint86d ago
$53.61eBayNear Mint90d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Related Assets

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
Umbreon — Prismatic Evolutions — Rare
UmbreonPrismatic EvolutionsPSA 9Simulated
  • 6% below fair value+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$16,075$15,1046.0%4.3%2029
Espeon — Prismatic Evolutions — Rare
EspeonPrismatic EvolutionsSimulated
  • 10% below fair value+12 pts
  • Low active inventory+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$1,571$1,4159.9%9.2%252
Sylveon ex — Prismatic Evolutions — Double Rare
Sylveon exPrismatic EvolutionsPSA 10Simulated
  • 10% below fair value+11 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$3,444$3,1169.5%4.9%1536
Prismatic Evolutions Elite Trainer Box — Prismatic Evolutions — Sealed
Prismatic Evolutions Elite Trainer BoxPrismatic EvolutionsSimulated
  • Price up 30% over 30 days+8 pts
  • High listing quality (sealed)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$1,752$1,6764.3%29.7%833
Lucario ex — Prismatic Evolutions — Double Rare
Lucario exPrismatic EvolutionsSimulated
  • Price up 26% over 30 days+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$725$6934.3%26.1%1041
Prismatic Evolutions Booster Bundle — Prismatic Evolutions — Sealed
Prismatic Evolutions Booster BundlePrismatic EvolutionsSimulated
  • 12% below fair value+14 pts
  • Price up 30% over 30 days+8 pts
  • High listing quality (sealed)+6 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$285$25012.1%29.9%1843