Charizard ex (Special Illustration)
SimulatedCharizard ex (Special Illustration) · XY Evolutions · Special Illustration Rare · 105/108
Character: Charizard
Price History
Opportunity Score
35- Low active inventory+7 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- Strong demand (19 sales/mo)+6 pts
- 3% below fair value+4 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral55Charizard ex (Special Illustration) is currently fairly valued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-4.2%). Estimated fair value is $614 against a lowest active listing of $594. Valuation confidence is high based on 3-plus recent comparable sales.
Neutral: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 629.99 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 623.11 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 630.26 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | -2.31 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $598 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 73 | 9d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $617 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 83 | 18d ago | May 31 | View |
| $624 | PWCC | Near Mint | 88 | 12d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $627 | eBay | Near Mint | 89 | 16d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $636 | Mercari | Near Mint | 98 | 7d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $636 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 100 | 12d ago | Jun 2 | View |
| $637 | PWCC | Near Mint | 83 | 19d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $654 | Mercari | Near Mint | 81 | 16d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $677 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 92 | 20d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $686 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 91 | 18d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $688 | eBay | Near Mint | 68 | 19d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $695 | PWCC | Near Mint | 99 | 15d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $678 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 2d ago |
| $574 | Mercari | Near Mint | 6d ago |
| $650 | eBay | Near Mint | 6d ago |
| $645 | Mercari | Near Mint | 14d ago |
| $743 | PWCC | Near Mint | 19d ago |
| $745 | Mercari | Near Mint | 22d ago |
| $819 | Mercari | Near Mint | 28d ago |
| $741 | eBay | Near Mint | 35d ago |
| $747 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 40d ago |
| $694 | PWCC | Near Mint | 42d ago |
| $628 | PWCC | Near Mint | 48d ago |
| $649 | PWCC | Near Mint | 59d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charizard GX (Shiny)Hidden FatesPSA 10Simulated
| $807 | $702 | 13.1% | 0.3% | 8 | 50 |
Base ZardBase SetPSA 10Simulated
| $7,466 | $7,039 | 5.7% | 10.3% | 8 | 37 |
Charizard Holo RareEvolving SkiesSimulated
| $223 | $187 | 16.4% | 16.0% | 14 | 57 |
Charizard ex (Illustration Rare)Evolving SkiesBGS 9.5Simulated
| $531 | $459 | 13.6% | 3.5% | 20 | 42 |
Charizard Ultra RareHidden FatesSimulated
| $504 | $488 | 3.2% | 18.7% | 4 | 50 |
Charizard ex (Illustration Rare)XY EvolutionsSimulated
| $738 | $634 | 14.1% | 25.7% | 11 | 47 |