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Grubbin — Crown Zenith — Common

Grubbin

Simulated

Grubbin · Crown Zenith · Common · 15

Character: Grubbin

high confidencebearish2730d 13.1%
Estimated Fair Value
$43.06
Lowest listing $42.022.4% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$35.72
Base Case
$43.06
Bull Case
$50.35

Price History

Dec 8Range $41.60 – $62.01Jun 5

Opportunity Score

30
  • Low active inventory+8 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+5 pts
  • 2% below fair value+3 pts
  • Strong demand (7 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish27

Grubbin is currently fairly valued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-13.1%). Estimated fair value is $43 against a lowest active listing of $42. Valuation confidence is high based on 2-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-13.1% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
2
Sales / Month
7.0
Velocity Score
35/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
-10.2%
Confidence
75/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-38.2%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$42.02
All-in cost
$71.02+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$168
Expected proceeds
$43.8730% gem → $50.42 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$27.15
Breakeven graded value
$272value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.1dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
70.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-5.8%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
10active listings
Recent sold avg
$48.98mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$46.13cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$40.73
Median
$49.34
Mean
$49.30
Max
$59.10

Showing 37 of 37 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps45.8250%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices43.6825%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection40.4825%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-2.0320%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$46.13TCGPlayerNear Mint9569d agoJan 1View
$50.00MercariNear Mint6355d agoJan 1View
$53.61MercariNear Mint6555d agoJun 7View
$54.00TCGPlayerNear Mint6465d agoJun 7View
$57.58eBayNear Mint8456d agoJan 1View
$57.63Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6055d agoJun 8View
$57.78MercariNear Mint6569d agoJun 6View
$57.79eBayNear Mint6455d agoJan 1View
$58.52eBayNear Mint9359d agoJan 1View
$59.21MercariNear Mint9474d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$50.67TCGPlayerNear Mint56d ago
$49.01MercariNear Mint56d ago
$45.10Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint58d ago
$44.52PWCCNear Mint59d ago
$43.72PWCCNear Mint59d ago
$45.74eBayNear Mint59d ago
$42.08Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint60d ago
$48.62eBayNear Mint61d ago
$49.83TCGPlayerNear Mint64d ago
$42.93TCGPlayerNear Mint66d ago
$43.21eBayNear Mint67d ago
$40.73TCGPlayerNear Mint68d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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