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Tangela — Crown Zenith — Common

Tangela

BGS 10Simulated

Tangela · Crown Zenith · Common · 4

Character: Tangela

high confidencebullish7230d 6.9%
Estimated Fair Value
$94.01
Lowest listing $90.623.6% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$76.12
Base Case
$94.01
Bull Case
$112

Price History

Dec 8Range $94.18 – $158Jun 5

Opportunity Score

36
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts
  • 4% below fair value+4 pts
  • Price up 7% over 30 days+3 pts
  • Strong demand (8 sales/mo)+3 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish72

Tangela (BGS 10) is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+6.9%). Estimated fair value is $94 against a lowest active listing of $91. Valuation confidence is high based on 22-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+6.9% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
22
Sales / Month
8.5
Velocity Score
43/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
-9.3%
Total Graded
3,546
Gem Mint
1,504
Population Growth
-0.6%
Stable supply

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-79.5%
Grading not economical
accelerating population

Population growing 5.8%/mo — supply expanding quickly across 4891 graded.

4,891 graded · 44% gem · +5.8%/mo

Raw cost
$90.62
All-in cost
$120+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$94.01
Expected proceeds
$24.5430% gem → $28.20 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$95.08
Breakeven graded value
$458value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
3.7dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
47.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-12.3%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
10active listings
Recent sold avg
$116mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$102cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$90.10
Median
$112
Mean
$112
Max
$136

Showing 17 of 18 sales · 1 outlier trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps93.5750%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices104.825%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection90.1525%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)0.2950%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-1.8720%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$102PWCCGraded7473d agoJan 1View
$105TCGPlayerGraded9155d agoJan 1View
$107PWCCGraded9466d agoJun 8View
$111Facebook MarketplaceGraded8356d agoJan 1View
$111TCGPlayerGraded8862d agoJan 1View
$120TCGPlayerGraded7658d agoJan 1View
$122MercariGraded7473d agoJan 1View
$124TCGPlayerGraded6465d agoJun 6View
$124MercariGraded8057d agoJan 1View
$130Facebook MarketplaceGraded7563d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$136PWCCGraded62d ago
$138PWCCGraded63d ago
$124eBayGraded68d ago
$128MercariGraded73d ago
$114PWCCGraded74d ago
$112TCGPlayerGraded77d ago
$106eBayGraded77d ago
$101Facebook MarketplaceGraded82d ago
$90.10Facebook MarketplaceGraded88d ago
$112MercariGraded95d ago
$99.08PWCCGraded107d ago
$98.06eBayGraded107d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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