Vulpix
SimulatedVulpix · XY Evolutions · Common · 14
Character: Vulpix
Price History
Opportunity Score
33- 11% below fair value+13 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- Strong demand (5 sales/mo)+2 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish32Vulpix is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-10.1%). Estimated fair value is $98 against a lowest active listing of $87. Valuation confidence is high based on 15-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-10.1% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
No population data reported for this asset.
- Raw cost
- $87.44
- All-in cost
- $116+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $350
- Expected proceeds
- $91.2930% gem → $105 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$25.15
- Breakeven graded value
- $446value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.4dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 50.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -26.0%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 18active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $74.73mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $55.28cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $64.32
- Median
- $81.54
- Mean
- $80.41
- Max
- $92.85
Showing 29 of 31 sales · 2 outliers trimmed
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 96.02 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 107.21 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 94.77 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | -0.5 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $55.28 | PWCC | Near Mint | 84 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $56.38 | PWCC | Near Mint | 81 | 56d ago | Jun 9 | View |
| $58.24 | PWCC | Near Mint | 89 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $58.72 | eBay | Near Mint | 93 | 75d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $60.50 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 76 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $62.15 | eBay | Near Mint | 86 | 75d ago | Jun 10 | View |
| $62.64 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 70 | 59d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $63.47 | eBay | Near Mint | 100 | 70d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $63.62 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 98 | 64d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $65.19 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 75 | 59d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $65.48 | eBay | Near Mint | 73 | 66d ago | Jun 9 | View |
| $66.69 | eBay | Near Mint | 90 | 59d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $59.51 | PWCC | Near Mint | 55d ago |
| $66.38 | PWCC | Near Mint | 56d ago |
| $64.32 | PWCC | Near Mint | 56d ago |
| $59.86 | Mercari | Near Mint | 57d ago |
| $78.03 | eBay | Near Mint | 61d ago |
| $81.54 | eBay | Near Mint | 64d ago |
| $76.77 | PWCC | Near Mint | 64d ago |
| $83.36 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 64d ago |
| $73.61 | PWCC | Near Mint | 65d ago |
| $83.62 | eBay | Near Mint | 67d ago |
| $74.37 | Mercari | Near Mint | 68d ago |
| $83.83 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 68d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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